Quote Originally Posted by Gato78 View Post
I have to ignore metrics at a certain point. Baseball guys in particular are way too deep into metrics (basic: left handed pitchers fare better against left handed hitters--time immemorial). I want gamers, guys who can hit free throws or get to the rim when the game is on the line or even when a big basket is needed. I do not give a damn what their e%FT/assist/in January rates are because there is an immeasurable. The guy who shoots 40% may be the guy who has the stones to lead a rally when 10 points down--even if he misses some shots. That toughness cannot be measured. If metrics ruled we would never have beaten Kentucky in 2003--or 1994 for that matter.
Metrics are not there to determine a one-off game. Yes, they can help determine outcomes, but the story they tell is the bigger picture. That said, the metrics in 2003 say we had the most efficient offense in the country. Marquette was top-10 in 3P% and top-25 in eFG%. Was it still an upset? Yeah. Would Kentucky have beaten us 7/10 times? Most likely. But metrics are about probability and give you a sketch of what could happen in a given game, not a definitive answer.

On the other hand, they tell the story of a season far more accurately. There are obviously outliers, but I'd guess that if we took Pomeroy's predictor right now and ran it out to the end of conference play, most teams would be within 2 wins of his current predictions. Because metrics are better at telling a big picture story than a snapshot.

Last year, I ran a similar test using the RPI Wizard application on RPIForecast.com. I tested around 25-30 teams and found that the Wizard predicted RPI accurately within 5 spots over 54% of the time and within 10 spots over 78% of the time. And that was strictly using aggregate win totals, not looking at how accurate it was when factoring home W/L outcomes.

You can throw it out, but this stuff works. No, an advanced metric won't determine if Howard will make the corner three with 1.2 seconds on the clock while trailing 78-76 at Cintas, but they'll do a good job of telling you how good your team actually is and how they match up against given foes.