BrewCity...

[TheSultan]

I am actually, really, enjoying this debate. The one thing that the stats cannot account for in late game situations, is how makes or misses at the free throw line affect momentum. That is totally unmeasurable (I think, maybe there is a momentum equation somewhere?) statistic that really does have a real impact on the outcome.

Right. Players are human and as such don't perform perfectly. Two players who are roughly the same statistically could perform completely different under certain situations because of how they handle pressure.

I never mean to say that statistics are the be all and end all, but pretty smart people have broken down the most important factors in winning basketball games over the course of time. Dean Oliver identified four major factors summarized here.

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles..._roboscout.htm

Specifically he says this about free throws:

"The fourth factor is getting to the foul line. I phrase this intentionally as "getting to the foul line," not "making foul shots" or "free throw percentage" or "free throws." This is because the biggest aspect of "free throws" is actually attempting them, not making them. Teams that get to the line more are more effective than teams that make a higher percentage of their free throws.

Of course he acknowledges the obvious in the next line:

"Game-by-game exceptions can definitely exist - there are plenty of games that are lost by a team missing its foul shots - but over the long haul, just getting to the line frequently wins a lot more games than missing a few freebies will lose." (emphasis mine)


Here is another summary by Pomeroy:

http://kenpom.com/blog/four-factors/

Again, it's free throw *rate* that is important. Just getting to the line. Not free throw *percentage.* Of course it is is better to make them than to miss them. It just isn't as crucial in the long run to winning basketball games as merely getting there.