OT World Cup Thread

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Obviously you are not a gambling man. 1/100 odds do not mean Germany has a 1-in-100 chance to advance. It means quite the opposite. To win $1 on Germany advancing at this point a bettor needs to wager $100. Portugal at 8-1 odds means a $100 bet would win $800 if they advance. I hope this gambling tutorial has been enlightening.

Haha no I'm not, that was definitely educating... I appreciate it.

[unclejohn]

"I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL LOSE, BUT STILL ADVANCE DUE TO GOAL DIFFERENTIAL!"

Kind of catchy, don't you think?

[TheSultan]

"I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL LOSE, BUT STILL ADVANCE DUE TO GOAL DIFFERENTIAL!"

Kind of catchy, don't you think?

LOL...whatever works!!!

I think they can beat Belgium. (Keep in mind I know nothing about them!!)

[warriorfan4life]

Job well done. Deserved the three points against Portugal, a bit fortunate to get all three against Ghana, and a respectable performance all things considered today against Germany. I think the U.S. would have been more dangerous today if their legs were not shot from quick turnaround from the jungle, and expect the attack to be more potent against the Belgians.

Edit: To answer Sultan's point, Belgium is super talented but have not meshed well together. They whooped us in a friendly last year, but I think the U.S. has been every bit their equal in Brazil.

[BLT]

Nate Silver chimes in on the USA's chances in the knockout round: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...-cup-opponent/

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Belgium on paper would be one of the favorites in this tournament, and will almost certainly be a top team in 2018. Tons of talent, but also very young and inexperienced. None of them have ever played in a World Cup knockout before, and prior to 2 weeks ago they had zero World Cup experience. You can't underestimate the raw talent of guys like Hazard, Origi, Mertens, De Bruyne, and Courtois, but this will be a new environment for them.

They are certainly beatable, but to do it I think we have to go at them like we did against Portugal. If we play on the back foot like we did against Germany, the speed and technique of Belgium will destroy us. We need to push them back and show we can attack. I would really like to see Mix Diskerud get into this game. He's our best player when it comes to making one or two touches and getting the ball to the next guy. I've been underwhelmed with both Zusi and Bedoya thus far and think Mix would be a welcome change.

Two of their top defenders (Kompany and Vermaelen) are struggling with injuries, so if Jozy can come back, now would certainly be the time. If not, I think they should keep with the false 9 sort of mentality that has seen Jones, Bradley, and Dempsey all alternating up front.

[TheSultan]

Of the 10 teams from the western hemisphere, 8 made it to the knock out round. Ecuador and Honduras were the only exceptions.

OTOH, Asian teams went 0-3-9 in group play.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Of the 10 teams from the western hemisphere, 8 made it to the knock out round. Ecuador and Honduras were the only exceptions.

OTOH, Asian teams went 0-3-9 in group play.

And FIFA was talking about taking the CONCACAF half-spot (we currently get 3 auto-bids and one play-in with Oceania) and giving it to Asia. Please. This has been a great showing for CONCACAF and CONMEBOL. Honestly, I think it's possible that you could see 6/8 teams in the quarterfinals from the Americas. Costa Rica will probably be favored against Greece and both USA and Mexico could beat their European opposition, while 2 South American teams are guaranteed (from Brazil/Chile and Colombia/Uruguay) while Argentina looks like a strong bet to join them.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Okay...long post alert...

We need to make some alterations to compete with Belgium. Two of the biggest problems this team has had are set piece delivery and the curious case of Michael Bradley. I hoped to see Davis take set pieces in the last match, but Klinsmann seems set with Zusi when he's in there and Bedoya when he isn't. Zusi's delivery has been very poor since the perfectly placed cross to Brooks for the Ghana winner. At this point, I'd rather see Dempsey, Bradley, or someone else (Mix?) take a crack.

The other problem seems to largely be created because Bradley has had to run so damn much (more than any other player this World Cup) due to the Altidore injury. Bradley's regular defensive duties have been compounded with a need to play the underneath role usually frequented by Dempsey. The Portugal game really stood out for me. Bradley was a beast in the first half, winning balls, attacking, and had the game ended there you could have argued he was our best player. In the second half, he got winded and simply couldn't connect up, all punctuated by the awful giveaway that led to Ronaldo's delivery for the winner.

My real issue with us though is how similar our attackers are. Whether it's Beasley and Johnson making long runs from the back, Bradley or Jones making surging box-to-box runs through the midfield, or Zusi and Bedoya charging up the wings, it seems everyone needs the ball at their feet to be most effective. There's only one ball, and you can't have 7 players (including Dempsey, best on the team with the ball at his feet) that all need the ball on their feet to be effective. Which is why I feel it's the time for Mix Diskerud.

If I'm Klinsmann, I'd consider something like this:

Dempsey

Diskerud ----- Johnson

Jones ----- Beckerman ----- Bradley

Beasley ----- Besler ----- Cameron ----- Yedlin

Howard

It's not that different from what we've been playing. Jones and Beasley have formed an able pair on the left, covering each other defensively and getting the ball up the pitch. Having Yedlin and Johnson together would keep one RB back at all times and provide a more defensive (but also faster) look than Zusi in there. That also allows Bradley to be a defensive safety valve both for the right side and Hazard as well as Beckerman dealing with De Bruyne in the middle. The real differences are Johnson taking Zusi's role primarily, Jones returning to the role he played against Ghana, but adding a quick-touch facilitator in Diskerud. One of the problems we've had this competition is interlinking in the final third. Diskerud is the only player on our team who generally already knows what he will do with the ball before he gets it. One or two touches and it's on to the next player. He won't try to get fancy, dribble around, and give the defense time to take the ball.

The only player on the roster that can hold up the ball allowing the midfielders to run on to him is Altidore. Without him in there, a change is needed. Diskerud will allow the USA to hold possession by transitioning quickly from right to left and back to front. When we've tried to hold the ball without Altidore, we've seen too many giveaways in the final third. Diskerud's mindset reduces the odds of that happening. He's not the defensive presence that Zusi or Bedoya are, but with Jones and Bradley flanking Beckerman and Johnson covering the young Yedlin there's enough presence at the back. Frankly, no amount of defense will ever really be "enough" for a team with the wealth of attacking options Belgium has, and the best way to reduce pressure is to actually apply some of our own in the final third. If Jozy isn't ready for 90 minutes, Diskerud is the only player on the roster that addresses that.

While this does take out our free kick takers, I'm willing to risk that. For direct kicks, Dempsey will take them anyway, and for crosses, we can't do much worse than we have (excepting Zusi's corner to Brooks).

Belgium has barely scraped by this World Cup despite winning all three. They came from behind against Algeria and all of their winners have been scored after the 75th minute. Using Diskerud will help the USA maintain possession (which worked well for Russia and South Korea for much of the game) and keep options like Zusi and Bedoya available off the bench to inject some late pace when in the past Belgium has been able to surge past teams with three of four goals coming from substitutes.

Relieve defensive pressure by maintaining meaningful possession, partner Dempsey with other attack-minded players that excel with minimal touches, and have energy off the bench to counteract Belgium's late strength and I fully believe the USA can win. But if we just do what wasn't quite enough to get desired results against Portugal and Germany, I fear the USA will be bowing out in the Round of 16 in back-to-back World Cups.

[Phantom Warrior]

I have been an advocate for soccer for more than two decades, ever since my son joined the Bavarians at age nine. Both my son and my daughter played premier level club soccer and school soccer. My daughter played two years of D-3 college soccer before transferring to UW, and my son was recruited by several schools and was told he could play mid-major D-1 (though he gave up soccer after high school).

I coached soccer for 10 years at the school where I taught, and each year I came to appreciate the game more and more as I began to understand some of the game's nuances.

However, after watching about a half dozen World Cup games, my attitude about the sport - at least as it is played at the highest level - is changing. I will still watch the game Tuesday against Belgium, of course, but I am growing incredibly weary of watching players end up on the ground - often writhing in apparent agony - at least once every two or three minutes, and sometimes three or four times in a single minute.

If I had the patience, I would chart how many times a player ends up on the ground following contact with an opponent. My guess is the count would be somewhere around 50, but it wouldn't surprise me if it were much higher. Yes, the players are incredibly skilled, and they are extremely athletic. But I find the style of play almost unbearable to watch.

I enjoyed watching the U-17 Bavarians play the U-17 Brookfield Soccer Club team in 2000 much more than I've enjoyed watching the best soccer players in the world knock each other to the turf.