O.K. Last year there were over 700 transfers, not sure of the exact number, but between 700 and 800. And, from all reports, that number has been increasing steadily the past several years and should continue to increase. Let's say this year the final number is close to 800, which might be a tad high, but who knows?
Figure there are 351 teams in D-1. Let's say the average roster number is 12. Many have a full 13, but many others are at 11. That comes to roughly 4,200 players.
Let's say 25% of those 4,200 are seniors and have used up their eligibility. That comes to 1,050, leaving 3,150 players who are eligible to return to their team. A few of those 3,150 will enter the NBA draft, while some (probably not many) who were fourth-year juniors will simply decide to move on with their lives, maybe play overseas for pay. So let's say that we are now looking at roughly 3,100 players.
However, let's now consider that of those 3,100, roughly 600 have already transferred (as non-grad transfers) the previous year and had to sit out the previous season. Almost none of those will transfer, sit out a season, and then immediately transfer again. So, of those 3,100, let's lop off another 600, which puts us at 2,500.
But wait, that same process also happened the year before, and most kids transfer after their freshman or sophomore year, rather than their junior year (though a few, like Steve Taylor) do. So, if 100 kids transferred after their junior year two years ago, they are out of the picture, leaving about 500 who transferred two year earlier but still have eligibility. So, now we're down to maybe 2,000 players who are still playing at their original school, have not used up their eligibility, and have not already transferred and are, therefore, unlikely to transfer again (though, again, a very few do - like Reinhardt, for example).
Now, let's return to that projected number of maybe as many as 800 transfers this season, only now it's out of 2,000 - those who can simply return to their school and have not already transferred.
That, ladies and gentlemen, comes to a 40% transfer rate...per year!
My estimated figures, could, of course, be off somewhat, but that doesn't matter. Even if they are, maybe the reality is 35%, meaning one in three players transfer instead of 2 out of 5.
Whatever the actual data, that is a frightening picture, one that fans will have to adjust to.