Lunardi

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

It is just so hard to say right now without seeing who else is on the bubble and what their resume is and how ours ultimately shakes out. I would tend to believe 11-7 gets it done, however without having everything in front of us it's impossible to say. In my opinion it's too soon to start talking NCAA tournament chances till mid way through conference season.

[ValiantSailor]

Almost everyone experiences upsets every year. The ones that we experience - both wins and losses - will determine our postseason.

VS

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

11-7 in a top five RPI league makes any team a lock.

LOL

I posted this over on Scoop in a related discussion. Let's see just how wrong you are:
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• 2015: They left out RPI 47 Miami at 21-12 (10-8) from the ACC & RPI 68 Texas A&M at 20-11 (11-7) from the SEC.
• 2014: They left out RPI 53 SMU at 23-9 (12-6) from the AAC, RPI 77 Arkansas at 21-11 (10-8) from the SEC, and RPI 67 St. John's at 20-12 (10-8) from the Big East.
• 2013: They left out RPI 76 Virginia at 21-11 (11-7) from the ACC and RPI 60 Alabama at 21-12 (12-6).
• 2012: They left out RPI 61 Washington at 21-10 (14-4), RPI 63 Oregon at 22-9 (13-5) and RPI 76 Arizona at 23-11 (12-6) from the Pac-12.
• 2011: They left out RPI 62 Virginia Tech at 21-11 (9-7) from the ACC and RPI 80 Alabama at 21-11 (14-4) from the SEC.

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If they can leave out power conference teams that win 20+ games overall and 14+ games in conference, I'm pretty sure they could leave out an 11-7 Big East team. Every single year for the past five at least two teams with 20+ wins and winning conference records from high major conferences got left out. Every single year. And I only went back five years. I'm confident if I went back further, I'd find more.

If we go 11-7 in league play and are coming in at 22-10 with a loss in the first game of the BET, we'll have a RPI right around 60. Will we get in? Maybe. I think we'd have a shot. Would that be a better resume than Miami last year, than SMU two years ago, than Alabama in 2013, Washington in 2012, or Alabama in 2011? Not really.

23 total wins is the magic number. Maybe we get in with 22. It's possible. Not probable, but possible. 21 or less and I'd recommend heading to the BC and getting in line. At least in the NIT we should get a home game.

[CaribouJim]

Got to believe this is true, also, do not discount the effect that Henry could have in moving us off the bubble. If he continues to play well, and looks like a All-American, it only helps our case.

Can you cite some examples where this came into play? The process for picking teams is pretty transparent, to the NCAA's credit. It's pretty scientific and helps explain why Lunardi can be so darn accurate year after year. I don't think they consciously throw a qualitative assessment like that into the mix. If a Henry Ellenson and/or Ben Simmons have stellar AA type seasons that don't translate into enough wins their respective teams don't get in IMO. I can't see a scenario where the selection committee states they took team A over team B even though their resume was less deserving because the play of AA candidate John Doe. They would get slaughtered.

[farmerdoc]

Can you cite some examples where this came into play? The process for picking teams is pretty transparent, to the NCAA's credit. It's pretty scientific and helps explain why Lunardi can be so darn accurate year after year. I don't think they consciously throw a qualitative assessment like that into the mix. If a Henry Ellenson and/or Ben Simmons have stellar AA type seasons that don't translate into enough wins their respective teams don't get in IMO. I can't see a scenario where the selection committee states they took team A over team B even though their resume was less deserving because the play of AA candidate John Doe. They would get slaughtered.

Nope, no examples, I would doubt that the committee would every admit it. However, if we are on the bubble, and our resume is similar to another team, the "star power" could be taken into account. If we continue to improve, I really don't think we will be a bubble team, so it won't matter.