Coaches poll

[MUwarrior1090]

LSU lost at home to Charleston tonight, they are in for a rough year.

They'll turn it around. Young players will grow and they add two guys mid year.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Again, you guys are putting too much emphasis on the RPI rating; especially at this point in time of the season. Yes, the RPI is important but not as much as it used to be when selecting teams. MU beat two power 5 conference teams on a neutral court. These defeated teams are expected to be in the middle of the standings for their conferences. Also, I don't look at the Belmont loss as necessarily being bad but rather consider the loss to Iowa by almost 30 points to be a real stinker. Even if we lose at Wisconsin and beat all the other bunnies on our schedule we will be 11-3 non-conference and if we go 10-8 in conference play in the tougher Big East this year, we will be selected for the NCAA, regardless of RPI, with 21 wins. Going 10-8 will be VERY tough but doable. We will have had to beaten some good teams for good wins

I'd be shocked if we got in at 10-8. Is there too much RPI focus? Maybe, but consider the other factors we've heard the committee talk about. Did we choose a tough non-con schedule and just slip up? Did we minimize weak opponents? The answers to those questions aren't in our favor. Granted, improving as the season goes on could help, but we finish with Nova, GT, and @ Butler. It will be tough entering Selection Sunday with a winning streak. And even with Big East play, we'll have a SOS around 100.

If we're going to hang our hat on our conference resume, it needs to be really good. Because so far, Villanova, Xavier, and Providence have been unquestionably better in non-conference while Butler, Creighton, and Seton Hall are about on par with us. So to get in, we likely need a better (not equal) conference record than at least 3 of those teams, and that's without factoring in Georgetown, who's expected to compete for a berth.

We play 7 teams currently at 250 or lower in Pomeroy. Creighton is the only other Big East team that plays 5, and 7/10 teams play 3 or fewer. What that means for us is that we will need to be notably better in conference than those teams because they will almost certainly have a better non-con resume.

Because of our schedule, anyone we are tied or even one win better than will have a better resume than we do. We will need 2-3 more wins to get in ahead of conference teams. How many teams in this league will we be 2-3 games better than? If the Big East manages 6, the answer needs to be 4 for us to Dance. Any less and that task gets tougher. And the NCAA takes lower ranked teams in the same league rather frequently:

2014: Georgia (12-6 SEC) snubbed while Tennessee (11-7 SEC) is an 11-seed. West Virginia (9-9 B12) snubbed while Oklahoma State (8-10 B12) is a 9-seed.

2013: Alabama & Kentucky (both 12-6 SEC) snubbed while Mizzou (11-7 SEC) is a 9-seed. Iowa (9-9 B10) snubbed while Illinois & Minnesota (both 8-10 B10) get in as 7 & 11-seeds respectively.

The question isn't just if we'll win enough to overcome our non-conference, but if we'll be 2+ wins ahead of at least 4 other Big East teams since we'll likely have the worst non-con of any of the tournament hopefuls. At 10-8 that seems unlikely. We need 12-6 or better to really be comfortably ahead enough to know we're a lock. Teams like Villanova, Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, and Butler will have better non-con resumes than us. Will we finish 2 games ahead of those teams in league play? Will we also finish ahead of Georgetown and Creighton? That's what it will take to get in. Not beating all of them, but quite a few.