Here is what I think the nine Big East teams that harbor tourney hopes still need to finish in conference to make the NCAA's:
Marquette, Creighton, Xavier: 11-7
Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's: 10-8
Villanova, Butler (that win over UNC will look real good come Selection Sunday): 9-9
I do not expect Creighton to finish anywhere near 11-7, and objectively have a tough time seeing the good guys finish 11-7 either, but feasibly see everyone else meet those benchmarks. I could see DePaul pulling a TCU in the Big 12 last year and finishing 0 for conference play, and Creighton play the role of Texas Tech and finish 6-12 in conference play.
Edit: Here is a rough projection
1. Villanova 14-4
2. Georgetown 12-6
3. Xavier 11-7
T4. Providence 10-8
T4. St. John's 10-8
T4. Seton Hall 10-8
7. Butler 9-9
8. Marquette 8-10
9. Creighton 6-12
10. DePaul 0-18