Originally Posted by
Phantom Warrior
Just wondering about shot distribution for this coming season. Consider.
Assuming that Carlino starts at point guard ahead of Derrick, that means we will be moving from a player who averaged 1 shot per 6.3 minutes in 30.8 mpg to a player who averaged 1 shot per 2.1 minutes. That would be quite a significant difference in the number/percentage of shots taken by the point guard.
Let's also assume that Mayo's minutes increase from 23.8 mpg to around 30 mpg, and that he plays primarily at the 2. Instead of Thomas, who averaged 1 shot per 4.6 minutes, which is extremely low for a starting off guard, we'd have Mayo, who averaged 1 shot per 3.1 minutes. That's a significant change as well.
In short, we will likely have two guards who like to pull the trigger and are pretty much volume shooters as opposed to a starting guard tandem that probably took fewer shots per 30 minutes than any other starting guard tandem in the country last year.
Now, let's take it a step further. If we assume that Burton's mpg will increase significantly, and that he will pick up a great deal of Jamil's minutes, think about this. Jamil averaged 1 shot per 2.9 minutes in about 29 mpg, which is probably in the normal range for a starting forward. But contrast that figure with Burton's 1 shot per 2.2 minutes in only 12.6 mpg. If DB averages 25 mpg, which seems likely, that would come to an awful lot of shots if he keeps up that rate.
My point is that there is only one ball, and we have three players who, in the past, like to jack up shots. Can all three co-exist when on the court together? And, what does this mean for the other two players on the court - Fischer, Taylor, and Johnson, in particular? Will they be lucky to even touch the ball?
One thing I think is a given. We definitely won't see a team whose starting back court averaged a combined 11.3 shots per game in a combined 60-61 mpg. I'll be surprised if between them Carlino and Mayo don't at least double that total in fewer mpg.
I also think one of Wojo's prime challenges will be to make sure Fischer and Taylor get a fair share of touches and shots.