Still see 10-8 in the league, as the consistency has not been there to do better. The one likely loss to me is @Nova, but the only easy win is Butler. Anything from 5-5 to 9-1 would not stun me, but the teams needs to play a strong 35 minutes a night, not the 20-25 we have seen all year (and other 15-20 minutes have often been rubbish).
However, from an objective look at a tournament standpoint/position, this team is nowhere near dead in the water or needing to win out. It is a lazy talking point crafted from the disappointment of initial expectations and not a look at the current reality (and it's not that hard to look at a projected bracket and see what profiles are currently in the field and being seriously considered).