DePaul @ Xavier/PC @ Seton Hall

[mufan2003]

Not for our sake though, correct? It seems like the Big East is trending towards 5 teams in the dance and we are in a battle with SH for that 5th spot.

I would guess 6 at this point. Villanova, Xavier, Butler, Creighton, MU and Seton Hall. Seton Hall (RPI 38, SOS 39) needs to get to 9-9 while MU (RPI 74, SOS 58) needs to get to 10-8. Georgetown (RPI 64, SOS 12) and Providence (RPI 73, SOS 36) have numbers that keep them in the discussion, but both are 4-8 and would have to go 5-1 down the stretch to finish 9-9 in conference.

[79warrior]

I would guess 6 at this point. Villanova, Xavier, Butler, Creighton, MU and Seton Hall. Seton Hall (RPI 38, SOS 39) needs to get to 9-9 while MU (RPI 74, SOS 58) needs to get to 10-8. Georgetown (RPI 64, SOS 12) and Providence (RPI 73, SOS 36) have numbers that keep them in the discussion, but both are 4-8 and would have to go 5-1 down the stretch to finish 9-9 in conference.

That got old SOS. MU once again looking weak in that stat.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I would guess 6 at this point. Villanova, Xavier, Butler, Creighton, MU and Seton Hall. Seton Hall (RPI 38, SOS 39) needs to get to 9-9 while MU (RPI 74, SOS 58) needs to get to 10-8. Georgetown (RPI 64, SOS 12) and Providence (RPI 73, SOS 36) have numbers that keep them in the discussion, but both are 4-8 and would have to go 5-1 down the stretch to finish 9-9 in conference.

I still think 4 is possible as well, though with the weak bubble and having to fill the field, you might see some 8-10 conference teams get in.

Seton Hall

Schedule: Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, @DePaul, Georgetown, @Butler

The Hall really needs to go 4-2 to be assured a bid. Their next three at home are massive. Entirely possible they only get 2. DePaul is 1-6 in conference road games this year, including losses at Providence and St. John's. They have to beat DePaul and get 3/4 at home, which includes 3 tourney teams.

Marquette

Schedule: Xavier, St. John's, @Providence, @Xavier, Creighton

4-1 locks us in, though I think 3-2 probably gets us to Dayton at worst. The next two games are massive. I think if MU doesn't beat Xavier and St. John's both at home, NCAA dreams are over.

Georgetown

Schedule: @Creighton, DePaul, @St. John's, @Seton Hall, Villanova

The Hoyas likely need to go 4-1. They crushed Creighton at home earlier this season and get to take on a Jays team that is 3-3 in their last 6, with 2 of those wins over DePaul. The Hoyas will have 8 days of rest going into that. If they win there, the next two look winnable (though the Johnnies are tough at home) leaving them at the point where a split in the last two could get them in. That Seton Hall game could be a virtual play-in.

Providence

Schedule: Xavier, @Creighton, Marquette, DePaul, @St. John's

The Friars also likely need to go 4-1. Realistically, they need 2 of their next 3. The bonus, two are at home. PC will be the first team to potentially face Xavier without Sumner and Blueitt. Capitalize there, win one of the next two, they may have something.

It's not impossible that this league could get 8 teams in, but I think 4 is more likely than 8. Ideal world, Hall goes 4-2 with losses to Creighton and Georgetown (gotta give the Jays something), Marquette goes 5-0 (I'm still a Marquette fan, always want us to win), Georgetown goes 4-1 (they'll lose to 'Nova), and Providence goes 4-1 (loss to Marquette). The Big East would have a real claim to 80% of their teams making it then (Creighton would still get in with 10-11 wins). But if St. John's gets hot and knocks off 2 of these teams, if Xavier finishes strong (4 of their remaining 6 are against teams hoping to be on the right side of the bubble), and if these teams don't all finish well at the same time, it's possible we only see 4 Big East teams.

[mufan2003]

Yeah, 4 is certainly possible. It would be disappointing given how the conference was #1 in RPI after non-conference play. I hope at least 5 get in. Always helps in recruiting with at least half of the conference getting in. Pulling for MU, Seton Hall and Georgetown to string some wins together down the stretch and maybe get 7.

[AlexJesswein]

http://imgur.com/a/WcMaL

Wonder who gets in based on the scenario above?

[warriorfan4life]

http://imgur.com/a/WcMaL

Wonder who gets in based on the scenario above?

Everyone but Providence. Providence does not have the non-conference heft/metric rankings to get in at 9-9 (or in Marquette's case, a golden win over Nova). The Hoyas have the awesome neutral court win over Oregon and road win at Butler, and nothing horrible otherwise (Arkanas State is 105th in Pomeroys), so 9-9 should give them right combination of wins and standing in the metrics.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Everyone but Providence. Providence does not have the non-conference heft/metric rankings to get in at 9-9 (or in Marquette's case, a golden win over Nova). The Hoyas have the awesome neutral court win over Oregon and road win at Butler, and nothing horrible otherwise (Arkanas State is 105th in Pomeroys), so 9-9 should give them right combination of wins and standing in the metrics.

I'm think everyone gets in. Under that scenario, I'm assuming Marquette's one loss is to Xavier. That gives the Friars wins over Xavier, Creighton, and Butler (all top-25). They also have a couple decent (not great) non-con wins over Vermont and Rhode Island. Top-60 RPI and top-50 SOS would make them a pretty compelling team, especially coming in having won 5/6.