Effective Field Goal Percentage

[Phantom Warrior]

Based on Brewcity's post, I decided to figure out the effective field goal percentage for any Big East player who is averaging 24.0 mpg or higher. I figured that playing 60% of a team's minutes made sense as a dividing line.

As far as I can figure there are 35 players who have played at least 24.0 mpg among players who have played in at least 75% of their team's games. Here are the results from highest to lowest.

THE FIGURES BELOW ARE BASED ON THE CORRECTIONS BREWCITY MADE BELOW AFTER MY INITIAL POST AS MY FIGURES WERE BASED ON AN INCORRECT ANALYSIS OF THE DATA I LOOKED AT. THANKS FOR MAKING THE CORRECTIONS, BREW.

1. Fischer (MU) - .747
2. Reynolds (Nova) - .714
3. Pryor (GTown) - .643
4. Thomas (Creighton) - .641
5. Lewis (Butler) - .636
6. Hanel (DePaul) - .609
7. Bridges (Nova) - .605
8. Lindsey (Prov) - .601
9. Hart (Nova) - .598
10. Martin - (Butler) - .596
11. Delgado (SHU) - .594
12. Cain (DePaul ) - .565
13. Carrington (SHU) - .560
14. Ponds (St. John's) - .551
15. Foster (Creighton) - .543
16. Brunson (Nova) - .529
17. Peak (GTown) - .527
18. Holt - (Prov.) - .526
19. LoVett (St. John's ) - .525
20. Watson (Creighton - .519
21. Chrabascz (Butler) - .514
22. Bullock (Prov.) - .510
23. Jenkins (Nova) - .508
24. Johnson (MU) - .500
25. Cheatham (MU) - .473
26. Blueitt (Xavier) - .466
27. Ahmed (St. John's) - .455
28. Cartwright (Providence) - .452
29. Jones (SHU) - .449
30. Sumner (Xavier) - .446
31. Rodriguez (SHU) - .438
32. Macura (Xavier) - .436
33. Bernard (Xavier) - .423
34. McCallum (DePaul) - .397
35. Garrett (DePaul) - .353

Sorry, but based on these figures, I have to be skeptical of the value of any system that ranks Watson (#20), Bullock (#22), and Blueitt (#26) so low, yet ranks Joe Hanel (#7) so high.

When MU prepares to play Creighton, the staff will game plan to contain Watson and Foster, when they prepare to play Providence, the staff will game plan to contain Bullock, and when they prepare to play Xavier, the staff will game plan to contain Blueitt. And when MU prepares to play DePaul, the staff will game plan to control Cain, not Hanel.

By the way, for anyone who is interested, Katin's effective field goal percentage at this point is .360, Sam's is .655, Markus' is .661, Duane's is .508, and Andrew's is .506. (Traci's was .565.) And, for the record, Patton's effective field goal percentage is .791, but he is averaging 23.2 mpg, so I didn't include him.

[warriorfan4life]

When using eFG% and individual players, you also need to look at usage and possession percentages to determine overall value. Hanel is efficient, but rarely shoots. Most every team has at least one efficient role player.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Not sure how you were calculating eFG%, but I noticed at least a few that were wrong. I probably mistyped the formula. Here's the formula again:

(Two point field goals made) + (1.5 x Three point field goals made)
Total Field goal attempts

With that in mind, here's the top 35 (I noticed Desi Rodriguez also qualifies):

1) Luke Fischer (MU) - 74.7% (56/75 2PFG, 0/0 3PFG)
2) Darryl Reynolds (Nova) - 71.4% (25/35 2PFG, 0/0 3PFG)
3) Rodney Pryor (GT) - 70.2% (43/69 2PFG, 35/67 3PFG)
4) Mikal Bridges (Nova) - 69.7% (33/42 2PFG, 11/29 3PFG)
5) Tyler Lewis (But) - 69.6% (22/32 2PFG, 9/19 3PFG)
6) Jalen Lindsey (PC) - 67.9% (11/20 2PFG, 23/47 3PFG)
7) Khyri Thomas (Crei) - 66.8% (36/60 2PFG, 17/32 3PFG)
8) Josh Hart (Nova) - 65.4% (53/83 2PFG, 24/53 3PFG)
9t) Eli Cain (DPU) - 60.9% (48/85 2PFG, 24/53 3PFG)
9t) Joe Hanel (DPU) - 60.9% (14/23 2PFG, 0/0 3PFG)
11) Marcus Foster (Crei) - 60.3% (47/80 2PFG, 29/70 3PFG)
12) Angel Delgado (SHU) - 59.4% (63/106 2PFG, 0/0 3PFG)
13) Khadeen Carrington (SHU) - 57.9% (54/108 2PFG, 25/50 3PFG)
14) Shamorie Ponds (SJU) - 56.8% (32/69 2PFG, 37/85 3PFG)
15) L.J. Peak (GT) - 56.6% (43/78 2PFG, 14/35 3PFG)
16) Jalen Brunson (Nova) - 56.6% (32/62 2PFG, 16/37 3PFG)
17) Emmitt Holt - (PC) - 55.8% (41/74 2PFG, 8/21 3PFG)
18) Rodney Bullock (PC) - 55.3% (54/100 2PFG, 20/52 3PFG)
19) Kris Jenkins (Nova) - 55.2% (17/44 2PFG, 31/71 3PFG)
20) Jajuan Johnson (MU) - 55.2% (45/77 2PFG, 9/29 3PFG)
21) Marcus LoVett (SJU) - 54.0% (37/76 2PFG, 20/48 3PFG)
22) Kelan Martin (But) - 52.6% (41/83 2PFG, 27/72 3PFG)
23) Trevon Blueitt (XU) - 52.2% (40/78 2PFG, 28/79 3PFG)
24) Maurice Watson (Crei) - 51.7% (47/100 2PFG, 9/17 3PFG)
25) Andrew Chrabascz (But) - 50.6% (26/64 2PFG, 11/20 3PFG)
26) Haanif Cheatham (MU) - 50.0% (37/74 2PFG, 6/18 3PFG)
27) Edmond Sumner (XU) - 49.6% (49/90 2PFG, 5/24 3PFG)
28) J.P. Macura (XU) - 48.5% (32/68 2PFG, 21/63 3PFG)
29) Desi Rodriguez (SHU) - 48.4% (52/99 2PFG, 6/27 3PFG)
30) Madison Jones (SHU) - 48.0% (19/39 2PFG, 3/10 3PFG)
31) Bashir Ahmed (SJU) - 46.6% (25/68 2PFG, 20/50 3PFG)
32) Kyron Cartwright (PC) - 46.4% (54/100 2PFG, 20/52 3PFG)
33) Tre'Darius McCallum (DPU) - 45.6% (27/51 2PFG, 3/18 3PFG)
34) Malcolm Bernard (XU) - 45.4% (8/24 2PFG, 11/30 3PFG)
35) Billy Garrett (DPU) - 37.0% (28/79 2PFG, 7/25 3PFG)

A few thoughts looking at this...
.

• Joe Hanel: He is an outlier on this list, which leads to two possible conclusions. First, that his incredibly low shot percentage (6.5% of shots taken, and just 23 total attempts for the year) means this stat is an outlier and that the more he shoots, the more he will regress to the mean (Only Reynolds has 35 or fewer shots, everyone else is more than double Hanel's FGA total). Second, DePaul is beset by terrible coaching that has one of their two best players in terms of eFG% (Hanel and Cain are exactly tied by percentage) is getting virtually no shots while Billy Garrett takes more than a quarter of the team's shots when he's on the floor.
• Xavier, eek: I've thought all season Xavier is overrated as they barely slide by against teams like Lehigh and Missouri. It's very interesting that the four players they have playing are in the bottom 13 of this list. As a team, XU is 170th in the nation in eFG%. They have regressed in all four factors since last year. My guess is Xavier is looking at the 5-7 range in the Big East rather than the 2-4 that most predicted them at.
• Tyler Lewis: As much as Hanel is an outlier, so is Tyler Lewis. His eFG% of 69.6% is more than 20 points higher than any other point of his career (45.6% last year). His usage has been low, so he will likely regress as the season goes on. I may be overly bullish on him so far. Good player to date, but probably won't remotely keep it up come conference play.
• Nova is good: Obviously, but their five qualifiers are all in the top-19. No wonder they're considered a viable #1 and national title contender again.

[Nukem2]

Even advanced stats are just stats. Need to look at more than one. Mostly, though, you resally do end up with what you see on the court. The eye and sniff tests are still valid. Sorry, JayBee and Brew.

[TheSultan]

I guess I don't understand what is so controversial about this. As Nukem says, they are just stats and you have to use the eye test. But FG% is incomplete because it doesn't cover the extra value a made three point shot gives you. EFG% is simply a weighted FG%.

The "four factors" that brew talked about have been statistically shown to be the more important factors that lead to a team winning a basketball game. Does that mean its a guaranty that if they win those factors that a team will win? Of course not. But it does show you what it is important to emphasize, and what is not so important. That's all.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

The eye test leads people to believe someone like Marcus LoVett is a top-15 player in this league. The eye test is deceiving because wow moments can slant a viewpoint, and guys that are excellent but in an average, unassuming manner go unappreciated.

Contrasting LoVett is the average eFG% but all around excellent game of a guy like Chrabascz. He rebounds, assists, gets to the lone, really does a bit of everything except turn the ball over. Without advanced stats, he's just a mediocre 11/5 guy, but when you look at all the little things he does, it becomes clear why he's such a good player.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

No one stat will be all encompassing, this is simply related to shooting efficiency, speaks nothing to passing, defense, rebounding, etc. Take it for what it is, a stat, a stat that is like any other stat, it can be spun to fit a narrative if need be.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

No one stat will be all encompassing, this is simply related to shooting efficiency, speaks nothing to passing, defense, rebounding, etc. Take it for what it is, a stat, a stat that is like any other stat, it can be spun to fit a narrative if need be.

Very true. eFG% is a better predictor of team results than individual performance. If your team is winning eFG% your odds of winning the game increase significantly, but there's far more to individual performance. Individually, it can overrate a Hanel or underrate a Chrabascz.

Assist rate, turnover percentage, usage rate, and free throw rate also play a big part in individual offensive performance, and that's without getting into defense, which is built just as much on stats that go beyond basic quantification.

[Nukem2]

The eye test leads people to believe someone like Marcus LoVett is a top-15 player in this league. The eye test is deceiving because wow moments can slant a viewpoint, and guys that are excellent but in an average, unassuming manner go unappreciated.

Contrasting LoVett is the average eFG% but all around excellent game of a guy like Chrabascz. He rebounds, assists, gets to the lone, really does a bit of everything except turn the ball over. Without advanced stats, he's just a mediocre 11/5 guy, but when you look at all the little things he does, it becomes clear why he's such a good player.

Chrabascz is exactly what I'm talking about. He is all over the place doing the right things. Obvious to the eye. Love watching him play (except against MU, of course).

[Phantom Warrior]

brewcity....

I really screwed up on Cartwright. I'm not sure how I did that - maybe looked at the wrong line at some point in the process, but I now have his efg% as 45.2%.

I also did have Rodriguez, just forgot to type him in (it was past midnight when I tried to do this).

I should know better than to try to do math that late at night (or early in the morning).