BrewCity...

[Markedman]

Free throws sure hurt MSU down the stretch tonight. Game in OT now. Ward played great for Spartans but was 4-13 at free throw line including missing front end of 1 and 1 with 28 seconds left.

Great comeback by Sparty down by 13 at half

[TheSultan]

Do people not understand the FT point? It's not that free throws don't matter. It's that they matter less than other factors.

Look at last night's game for instance. If MSU shoots their normal FT% (45% last night versus about 60% for the season), they would have scored three more points.

They could have accomplished the same three points by making one additional three point shot, which would have lifted their eFG% by about 2%. (From about 49% to 51%.) If they would have reached their season average in eFG% (54%), they would have scored about 8 more points.

Put this another way. Say that Marquette as a team shot free throws as well as their top free throw shooters (Rowsey and Reinhardt at 96%). To accomplish this, they would have had to raised their FT% by 15 percentage points and would have scored about 33 more points. They could also have scored those same 33 points by raising their eFG% as a team from 57.8% to about 60.4%.

Small variations in eFG% have a much greater impact on points scored than FT%. You have to increase FT% by HUGE percentage to come close to accomplishing what seemingly minor increases in eFG% can accomplish.

[Nukem2]

Do people not understand the FT point? It's not that free throws don't matter. It's that they matter less than other factors.

Look at last night's game for instance. If MSU shoots their normal FT% (45% last night versus about 60% for the season), they would have scored three more points.

They could have accomplished the same three points by making one additional three point shot, which would have lifted their eFG% by about 2%. (From about 49% to 51%.) If they would have reached their season average in eFG% (54%), they would have scored about 8 more points.

Put this another way. Say that Marquette as a team shot free throws as well as their top free throw shooters (Rowsey and Reinhardt at 96%). To accomplish this, they would have had to raised their FT% by 15 percentage points and would have scored about 33 more points. They could also have scored those same 33 points by raising their eFG% as a team from 57.8% to about 60.4%.

Small variations in eFG% have a much greater impact on points scored than FT%. You have to increase FT% by HUGE percentage to come close to accomplishing what seemingly minor increases in eFG% can accomplish.

All true, but missed FTs (especially front ends of on-and-ones) at the end of a game can truly have major significance in the outcome of a game. The real issue there is that you give the other guy possession of the ball on top of missing scoring opportunities. Hard to measure that. Have seen it time and again over the decades. Stats be damned in that case.

[TheSultan]

All true, but missed FTs (especially front ends of on-and-ones) at the end of a game can truly have major significance in the outcome of a game. The real issue there is that you give the other guy possession of the ball on top of missing scoring opportunities. Hard to measure that. Have seen it time and again over the decades. Stats be damned in that case.

You are cherry picking end of the game scenarios. Better shooting earlier in the game would have rendered those free throw situations less important.

And again, no one is saying that hitting free throws in the situation you are describing aren't important. Just not as important as other factors.

[Markedman]

I understand it Sultan. My beef is when some guys(JB) say"free throws don't matter".

The other 4 factors are obviously more important but they all are influenced by the opponent. Free throws are unguarded opportunities to gain points...especially in close games.

I guess my point is you are going to have games when you don't play well...or don't shoot well.....you turn it over a few times to many...yet you still find yourself in a tight game late.........in those cases being a good free throw team can make the difference in a win or a loss. Hell in the game last night being an average free throw shooting team would have made a difference.



Anyway.......I am by no means suggesting that Free throw % is as important as the other factors.....only that in crunch time missing free throws can really cost you...no matter how you got to crunch time.

[Nukem2]

You are cherry picking end of the game scenarios. Better shooting earlier in the game would have rendered those free throw situations less important.

And again, no one is saying that hitting free throws in the situation you are describing aren't important. Just not as important as other factors.

Cherry picking? Only in terms of overall stats maybe. Otherwise, FTs are damned important late in very close games. Hard to deny that.

[TheSultan]

I understand it Sultan. My beef is when some guys(JB) say"free throws don't matter".

Well yeah. That's just his schtick.

[TheSultan]

Cherry picking? Only in terms of overall stats maybe. Otherwise, FTs are damned important late in very close games. Hard to deny that.

Of course. Unless you realize that if you performed better earlier in the game, the FTs wouldn't have mattered. And you are cherry picking - front end FT situations are no more important at the end of the game than they are at the 8:00 mark of the first half.

[Nukem2]

Of course. Unless you realize that if you performed better earlier in the game, the FTs wouldn't have mattered. And you are cherry picking - front end FT situations are no more important at the end of the game than they are at the 8:00 mark of the first half.

Practical matter is that the game is what it is late in the game. Overall stats go out the window at that point as they are rather meaningless at that point. Have a Happy New Year.

[Phantom Warrior]

Bottom line for me is that I'd rather MU shoots 76% as a team on free throws than 67%. That means that out of every 12 free throws attempted, we would make nine instead of eight. This year's team is shooting 81% so far on free throw attempts. We are averaging just under 20 free throw attempts per game (19.2). If we hit 80% of 20, we make 16. If we make only 70%, we make 14. Difference of two points.

On top of all that, I'd much rather have one of our 90%-plus free throw shooters on the line (Markus, Andrew, Katin) than one of our sub-70% free throw shooters (Luke and Duane).

Making free throws is crucial, not just at the end of the game, but at any juncture in the game.