BrewCity...

[Nukem2]

But it is a valuable statistic that can help you judge player v. player and how a basketball team should be put together. You can especially see this in the NBA where 3 point shooting is emphasized more than it ever has.

That's my point. It's a resultant stat, useful for analysis. Does not help a guy be a better shooter.

[TheSultan]

That's my point. It's a resultant stat, useful for analysis. Does not help a guy be a better shooter.

No one said it did. And all statistics are "resultant." They mathematically describe what has already occurred.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

That's my point. It's a resultant stat, useful for analysis. Does not help a guy be a better shooter.

I'm not sure I agree with that. First, I think it impacts recruiting. Guys like Hauser, Howard, and Rowsey have helped our team eFG%. The staff has prioritized guys that can hit shots from long range. That has led to the highest eFG% to date of any Marquette team since Pomeroy has been recording stats.

Second, I think it can be used to coach players on shot selection. Henry last year was a fantastic example. Henry had some incredibly questionable shot selection for much of last year. I felt he really turned the corner after the Stetson game. He took better shots, wasn't chucking threes like he had been, played more in the flow of the offense.

There was a lot of criticism of those pointing out Henry's flaws at that time, but I felt they were warranted. He put up points and boards, but his usage was far too high for the efficiency. It sometimes felt like saying anything bad about Henry's game was taboo, despite his eFG% through January 27 being at 46.4% (98/209 2PFGs, 18/67 3PFGs).

Starting with the Butler game, he really improved his play. The rest of the way his eFG% was at 52.8% (66/122 2PFGs, 12/37 3PFGs). That's a monumental jump, and you can say it was just resultant of better shot selection, playing within the offense, and being more selective on when he would take a three, but to me it sure felt like using advanced metrics to figure out how to improve his game.

Henry's scoring and rebounding numbers didn't change markedly in that period. By basic stats, he was a very similar player. But as far as efficiency, he went through the roof and was a much better player starting January 30. The combination of recruiting players who have tendencies that excel in eFG% and working with players on the elements that make up eFG% is absolutely a coaching benefit.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Somehow, I got this far without mentioning maybe the two most blatant stats:

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

This is what Pomeroy rates teams based on. His stats are adjusted for the level of competition (performing well against tougher opponents yields better ratings), but the basic jist of it all comes down to points per possession. As mentioned earlier, the average team will give up 1.00 point per possession on defense and score 1.00 point per possession on offense. Naturally it varies some from year to year, and this year offense is actually ahead of defense (the median this year is actually 1.039 on offense), but 1.00 has always been considered that middle ground.

When you look at Pomeroy's offense and defense numbers, it will be calculated per 100 possessions. Marquette, at this point, is averaging 115.9 points every 100 possessions on offense and giving up 100.6 points in the same span. In terms of points per possession, you simply divide by 100 to get 1.159 per possession on offense and 1.006 per possession on defense.

These numbers, along with eFG%, are the gold standard of analysis, and explain why a team like Virginia or Wisconsin could average 70 points per game (on 60 possessions) and still be an elite offense while another team that averages 75 points per game (on 80 possessions) might have a below average offense despite scoring more points.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Okay...lots of stuff in there, and that covers the bulk of the team data. Now I'll move on to individuals. First, a few things that are pretty constant:

Offensive Rating Players are judged on the points they score individually per possession. This is why I feel Sam is a lot closer to that top-15 than some others may think. He is ranked #22 in the nation with a 138.4 offensive rating. Quite simply, when Sam is looking to score, he is one of the best not just in the conference, but in the country. The two knocks on Sam are that he has only played 56.8% of minutes and his usage is low. The more a player uses the ball (whether creating for others or shooting themselves) the more their stats trend toward the mean. It's easy to have ridiculous numbers when you don't shoot a lot, but harder to maintain that when you are the team's go-to guy.

eFG% Still the gold standard, just calculated for the individual.

Shot percentages All the same.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

A lot of these are pretty self explanatory, but I figure I'll just blaze through them all. Here are individual stats that differ:

Usage This is the "%Poss" stat for Pomeroy. It refers to the number of possessions that end in a given players hands. So it will usually refer to made baskets or turnovers.

Percent Shots This is how many of the team's shots a player takes when he is on the floor. So if a guy has a 25% rating here, he is taking one out of every four shots his team attempts. In an ideal world, these guys should also be your most efficient players because you want those guys taking most of your shots, but as mentioned before, the more you use the ball, the more players tend towards the mean. This is why the advanced statniks have been hyper-critical of Reinhardt. His shot percentage has been insanely high even when his eFG% is insanely low. If you're shooting the most, you should be efficient at it.

OR%/DR% Offensive and defensive rebounding percent refer to what percent of the time that player gets to an offensive miss or a defensive miss. Elite players on offense will get to around 18-20% of offensive rebounds, or one out of every five misses. On defense, the elite will get to around 30-35%, or roughly one out of every three misses. Sticking in MU fans' craws right now might be that Steve Taylor of Toledo is getting to 33% of the opponent's misses, good for 3rd in the nation. Positionally, in the frontcourt I'd say anything in the 8-12% range is pretty good on offense and 18-22% is good on defense. For backcourt players, anything in the 5-8% range is good on offense and 12-16% is pretty good on defense.

Assist Rate This is the percentage of baskets you are credited with an assist on for all baskets made when you are on the court.

Turnover Rate Turnovers / Possessions. Lower is better.

Block Percentage The percentage of opponent's shots that you block.

Steal Percentage The number of opponent's possessions that end in you stealing the ball.

Fouls Conceded/40 & Fouls Drawn/40 Number of fouls a player commits or has committed on him when averaged over 40 minutes of play.

Free Throw Rate Simply, FTA/FGA. How often do you get to the line compared to the number of field goals you attempt.

[IrwinFletcher]

Thanks Brew, really appreciate it.

This model really points to the value of the 3 point shot, which I think Pitino was the first to really utilize going back to his Kentucky days and something I think that Wojo has embraced. I remember analysts saying that if a guy went 3/9 for the line, he was actually 4.5/9 from the field and thus 50% shooting percentage and that was considered very good.

The one i never really understood was player usage even though that is a pretty basic stat.

Last question, how does Pomeroy come up with his final rankings? Is it simply some average of the Offensive and Defensive efficiency?

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Nice and easy, overall rankings are offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency.

[IrwinFletcher]

[QUOTE=Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77";133590]Okay...lots of stuff in there, and that covers the bulk of the team data. Now I'll move on to individuals. First, a few things that are pretty constant:

Offensive Rating Players are judged on the points they score individually per possession. This is why I feel Sam is a lot closer to that top-15 than some others may think. He is ranked #22 in the nation with a 138.4 offensive rating. Quite simply, when Sam is looking to score, he is one of the best not just in the conference, but in the country. The two knocks on Sam are that he has only played 56.8% of minutes and his usage is low. The more a player uses the ball (whether creating for others or shooting themselves) the more their stats trend toward the mean. It's easy to have ridiculous numbers when you don't shoot a lot, but harder to maintain that when you are the team's go-to guy.


How is Offensive Rating calculated, seeing it appears to incorporate Assists?

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I have been looking for a great explanation, and resorted to emailing Pomeroy to ask. I know it factors in points per possession, eFG%, fouls drawn, assist percentage, rebound percentage, and penalizes heavily for turnovers, but it's also a proprietary calculation that I don't believe has been fully explained.