Expecting the Unexpected

At this time a year ago, I had a fair number of expectations with respect to individual players' mpg.

For example, I figured Traci would log about 24-25 mpg at point, roughly the same (23.7 mpg) as his freshman year even though I knew Markus and Andrew would be new to the team. My reasoning was that neither of the latter was a pure point guard and that Traci would improve across the board with a year of experience. I also viewed him as our toughest perimeter defender.

It turned out of course, that Traci decided to transfer and played in only eight games.

I also expected Haanif to be at or near the top of the list in terms of playing time as he had been second behind only Henry his freshman year averaging 29.5 mpg. I didn't anticipate his getting 30 mpg because of the additions of Rowsey, Markus, and Katin, but I figured he'd likely be first or second on the team in scoring as he averaged 11.8 ppg as a freshman.

Well, we did have five players average in double figures last year in terms of scoring, but HC was not one of them. He was seventh on the team at 8.8 ppg. I also never expected he'd end the season as basically last man in the rotation, but that's exactly what happened.

Then, there was Luke. I figured if anyone on the team was going to average 30 mpg, it was Luke. After all, he averaged 29.3 mpg as a sophomore and 28.2 mpg as a junior. Besides, we only had an unproven Matt behind him at the 5 after Henry departed.

So what happened? Luke's mpg dropped to 24.0 mpg, and he even lost his starting spot to Matt for a number of games at the end of the season. There was a four-game stretch in which he averaged a paltry 14 mpg. I never, and I mean never, saw that coming.

Finally, on the deficit side, was Duane. I did not expect him to average 28-plus mpg like he did as a freshman and a sophomore. But no way did I anticipate his mpg dropping to just over 16 mpg.

On the other side of the proverbial coin was Sam. I had figured he'd get somewhere around 20 mpg at the 4 because we did not have any other natural 4 on the roster. But I never foresaw his leading the team in mpg. In fact, over the last seven games he averaged 29.3 mpg.

Nor did I imagine there was any way Markus would lead the team in scoring, not with Haanif, Luke, JJ, and Duane all returning as all of them had averaged double figures the year before. Yet that's what happened. Markus outscored Haanif, JJ, Luke, and Duane, as well as Katin who had been a double-digit scorer at USC.

So, what am I expecting will happen this season? I am expecting the unexpected.

I agree......and to me that is always the most interesting thing about being a college basketball fan. You just never know who will get better.....who will regress.....and what the newcomers will do.

Great post, as usual, Phantom. I think the wild card this year will be Haanif. I expect him to be a man on a mission.

Haney might be the key, but if it doesn't work out, we have Cain behind him.
If Froling is the key but doesn't work out, we have Theo or Heldt to slide in.
If Cain is the key and doesn't work out, we have Elliott to call on.

It is so nice to have depth on this roster to help mitigitate injuries or if someone's development doesn't happen as rapidly as it might need to.