Big East Bid Discussion

So I just wrote this on Cracked Sidewalks:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014...nd-bubble.html

I wanted to discuss it here. Looking at Marquette's resume, it's not as bad as many people might think. The RPI and SOS are lagging a bit, but if this team can win 5 more games, I think they are a lock to go to the Dance. And if Marquette does that (assuming a loss at Nova) and the rest of the bubble teams (Xavier, St. John's, Georgetown, Providence) can hold serve at home and sweep the bottom feeders, this could actually be a 7-bid league. It seems outrageous to think, but that would give us 6 teams with top-50 RPIs and at least 18 wins, and a St. John's team with 20 wins and a 54 RPI. I'd think all it would take would be one win at MSG for the Johnnies to lock up an at-large bid were that the case.

Unlikely? Probably. Impossible? Not at all.

I would be very happy with 5 bids, but from a financial standpoint deep runs in the tournament by Big East teams is more important. As for MU's chances I think they need to beat either Creighton or Villanova to make this happen, but with that being said they could lose both and all other teams could crumble.

7 bids? Maybe when the Angels win the pennant.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuwMvesrw7w

I'd agree, not a chance we get 7, we will be lucky to get 5... At this point only Nova and Creighton are locks... Xavier is likely in but could still very we'll fall out with a bad finish. Then Marquette, Georgetown, providence, and St. John's are all on the bubble and some of those will knock each other out in the process.

As it stands now, I think 4 are safely in (Nova, Creighton, Xavier, Georgetown), PC is right on the bubble, and St. John's and Marquette are in the discussion but not among the final 4 teams in or out. PC and Johnnies do not have a significant non-conference win, and that will hurt them in the final discussion of teams. We need GW to remain solidly in the field, as non-conference wins play a large part in picking the last few teams.

I think PC and St. John's need to get to 11-7 in conference to get in. Marquette needs 11-7 and 1-2 wins in New York.

Nebraska just won at Michigan State......another team that is now in the discussion.....RPI is up to 52...22 spots ahead of us..3 top 50 wins but 3 losses outside the top 100 but none are really bad....SOS of 23...We still have lots of work to do to have a chance

The league can get 7 bids if 7 are deserving. I don't know why the concept is so outrageous. There is no limit on the number of teams from any conference.

That is true but typically getting 7 out of 10 would be hard to do if 4 or 5 of them are near the bubble. I doubt the committee would do that.......politics would likely come into play when you have a bunch of teams with mediocre resumes at the end of the S curve.

I would bet on 4 or 5 max but lots of ball to be played yet....only 2 locks as of now.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kneelb4zerg

The league can get 7 bids if 7 are deserving. I don't know why the concept is so outrageous. There is no limit on the number of teams from any conference.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Markedman

That is true but typically getting 7 out of 10 would be hard to do if 4 or 5 of them are near the bubble. I doubt the committee would do that.......politics would likely come into play when you have a bunch of teams with mediocre resumes at the end of the S curve.
.

---

Is that anything more than speculation?

I'm not saying 7 will happen. But if the 5 bubble teams hold serve at home and sweep the bottom-feeders, that will give the Big East 6 teams with 10+ conference wins. Of those 6, 4 will have RPIs in the top 45 (locking in 'Nova, Creighton, X, and Providence), with Marquette and St. John's potentially just outside the top-50. The seventh team would be Georgetown at 9-9 but likely still in with non-con wins over VCU, Michigan State, and Kansas State.

The bubble is really soft. Some of the questions that will be asked will be whether Big East teams are more deserving than mid-majors like BYU and Dayton. Whether 10 wins in the Big East deserves more respect than the 6 or 7 teams like Baylor and Oklahoma State may have in the Big 12. Whether advanced systems like Pomeroy are starting to gain traction over the RPI, which would favor Big East teams over schools like Richmond and Southern Miss. Whether the Big East's top-to-bottom strength makes their teams more deserving than schools from lopsided conferences like Clemson and Tennessee.

Most likely some teams will get hot and some will get cold and come Selection Sunday there won't be more than 5 teams even dreaming of a bid. But if that doesn't happen, some of these questions will have to be answered, and it's not at all out of the realm of possibility that this league could not only have the highest percentage of bids for a league, but could actually lead the nation in most bids for a single league. All it would take is one of those Big 12 teams falling out, and both Okie State and Baylor could fall pretty fast.

No it is speculation.......but I can't remember a time when a conference got 70% of it's teams in with 4 or 5 of them as 9 seeds or lower.

Maybe it has but it would just seem unlikely to me....

In 1991, the Big East sent 7 of their 9 teams to the tournament...

2-seed Syracuse
3-seed Seton Hall
4-seed St. John's
6-seed Pittsburgh
8-seed Georgetown
9-seed Villanova
11-seed Connecticut

I realize they weren't all bubble, but that's almost half on the bubble. If things play out right, you'd have 4 teams locked in (like 1991) and 3 on the bubble (like 1991). Not all that different. Especially if one of those three won the Big East tournament, guaranteeing a bid.

And honestly, Providence had a legit case that year too. They were 7-9 in league play (same as 'Nova) and had a better overall record than the Wildcats at 19-13 ('Nova was 17-15). They also had at least one win over every NCAA team the Big East did send except Pitt. What probably did them in was their conference opener, a loss at Boston College that proved to be the only conference game BC won all year. If Providence goes 8-8, they may have made it 8/9.

What is really encouraging is that Big East has 7 candidates as of today and everyone but Creighton could be better next year. Seton Hall brings in a great recruiting class, and return some nice pieces in Gibbs, Auda, Mobley, and Sina. I think Butler will be much better next year with the return of Roosevelt Jones, and they can hopefully find an impact transfer or two in the spring. DePaul is doomed until they can Purnell and Ponsetto (who I have no faith in hiring Purnell's replacement).