American vs. Big East

Brew had an interesting post on Scoop about the American, and the league is fairly even with the Big East on the whole this year. I think the top of each league will be closer then it appears now (expect MU and G-Town to turn it on and spend most of Feb/March in top 25, and think Nova will consistently stay ranked in 10-20 range). I think the bottom part of our conference is significantly better, even with Hall losing to a terrible FDU team). A year from now though that picture changes in a major way. Going forward, The American loses Louisville (though I think it that league is actually a good fit for them), but even more importantly they signed just two top 100 prospects in the fall (and I believe that Daniel Hamilton signed scholly papers, but not an LOI. Still doubt that he ever makes it to Storrs). Meanwhile, the Big East signed 17 top 100 players (and a fair amount of guys in 100-150 range). I think the Big East will comfortably sit in the 3-6 range, and closer to 3 if the recruiting stays close to 2014's pace (already off to a good start with three top 100 verbals in 2015). The American will regress into a similar spot as The Mountain West, popping up in the top 5 discussion every so often but more often sitting in the 7-10 range overall.

There's a strong likelihood they will fall off after this year. Louisville is clearly the cream of the crop. Not sure if Ollie will keep it going in UConn, but he looks like a worthy successor whereas many seemed to think UConn would fall back to obscurity after Calhoun retired. I've never really believed in Pastner and Memphis, granted they beat Oklahoma State the other day, but that was his first ever win over a top-25 team and despite solid recruiting they always look like fool's gold to me. Cincy is solid and has been tough under Cronin.

Regardless, those three core programs will likely stay strong, and I figure Temple will be better long-term than they've shown this year. For the league to really compete, they need 2-3 other programs to develop into at least NCAA contenders. UCF and USF have had some recent success, SMU certainly has the money and landing Mudiay could be a program-changer (at least until the NCAA comes sniffing), and Houston seems like another decent contender that has started reeling in some top-100 talent.

If those five schools can routinely produce 3 bids, you're looking at a legitimate power conference. If those five produce 1-2, they will be a step below, with the Mountain West probably being a good comparison. Any less than that and it simply won't be a strong league, because the other schools coming in (ECU, Tulane, Tulsa) are simply god-awful and the more frequently they produce 3 bids, the more the committee will devalue any wins that aren't against the Big 3, meaning that in a down year it could be a 1-2 bid conference like C-USA was. My guess is the middle ground, with 4-5 bids regularly and being in that same 7-10 range you predict.

Didn't we know the AAC would be a soild basketball league. L'ville, Uconn, UC, Memphis, Temple are strong program. SMU & ECU are upcoming schools.

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Originally Posted by brewcity77

Not sure if Ollie will keep it going in UConn, but he looks like a worthy successor whereas many seemed to think UConn would fall back to obscurity after Calhoun retired. I've never really believed in Pastner and Memphis, granted they beat Oklahoma State the other day, but that was his first ever win over a top-25 team and despite solid recruiting they always look like fool's gold to me. Cincy is solid and has been tough under Cronin.

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I think you're greatly under-valuing Ollie, he's the real deal.

Pastner has taken a lot of criticism for his in-game coaching, but there is one guarantee with him which is he'll always pull in really good players.

Next year they get Tulane (who is just as awful this year as ever). ECU is surprisingly "solid". Lebo had a bad run at Auburn but I would imagine will parlay his current success to a better job soon. I thought Tulsa would get back to their standard level of success under Manning but to this point there hasn't been improvement (although it's only his second season).

The moral of my story is comparing the two leagues this year doesn't matter since the American has so much change coming while the Big East doesn't (assuming no expansion in the near future).

P.S. Maybe I should devote a seperate thread to this, but speaking of Tulane...what's the story with their Big East invitation? It appears like that was the straw that broke the camel's back and made the Hoops 7 schools split away. Were those schools not involved in the discussions of adding them? Was there a vote? Still blows my mind they were invited.

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Originally Posted by MUBasketball

I think you're greatly under-valuing Ollie, he's the real deal.

Pastner has taken a lot of criticism for his in-game coaching, but there is one guarantee with him which is he'll always pull in really good players.

Next year they get Tulane (who is just as awful this year as ever). ECU is surprisingly "solid". Lebo had a bad run at Auburn but I would imagine will parlay his current success to a better job soon. I thought Tulsa would get back to their standard level of success under Manning but to this point there hasn't been improvement (although it's only his second season).

The moral of my story is comparing the two leagues this year doesn't matter since the American has so much change coming while the Big East doesn't (assuming no expansion in the near future).

P.S. Maybe I should devote a seperate thread to this, but speaking of Tulane...what's the story with their Big East invitation? It appears like that was the straw that broke the camel's back and made the Hoops 7 schools split away. Were those schools not involved in the discussions of adding them? Was there a vote? Still blows my mind they were invited.

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And it seems like no one will take responsibility for who invited them. If I remember correctly, when they did, they football schools said,"WTF?" The basketball schools said,"WTF", then bolted.

As for comparing the two conferences, this really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Next year, it won't be as strong, and a watered down league is the very reason why we were leaving. As long as the league was still strong, we dealt with the football drama.

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Originally Posted by MUBasketball

I think you're greatly under-valuing Ollie, he's the real deal.

Pastner has taken a lot of criticism for his in-game coaching, but there is one guarantee with him which is he'll always pull in really good players.

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I don't think I'm under-valuing Ollie. I said he looks like a worthy successor to a coach who won 3 national titles, 7 Big East Tourney titles, and 10 Big East regular season titles. All I'm pointing out is there was a decent amount of chatter before Calhoun stepped down that UConn didn't have an illustrious history before he arrived and there were many who thought they're return to that. Ollie has impressed me so far.

Agree that Pastner is a great recruiter, but man does he underwhelm as a game coach. Not sure he was ready for a major program. The kid can recruit, but I think having players as good as he's had have actually done a disservice to him learning how to manage a game. He relies too much on their talent, and when they meet other talented teams, he comes up short. He is somewhat the opposite of a guy like Ed Cooley. He learned the finer parts as an assistant at Boston College then had to prove he could succeed at Fairfield before getting a bigger job. I realize he's still a work in progress as a game coach, but I think he's well ahead of Pastner, who never really did that slogging through the mud.

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Originally Posted by brewcity77

I don't think I'm under-valuing Ollie. I said he looks like a worthy successor to a coach who won 3 national titles, 7 Big East Tourney titles, and 10 Big East regular season titles. All I'm pointing out is there was a decent amount of chatter before Calhoun stepped down that UConn didn't have an illustrious history before he arrived and there were many who thought they're return to that. Ollie has impressed me so far.

Agree that Pastner is a great recruiter, but man does he underwhelm as a game coach. Not sure he was ready for a major program. The kid can recruit, but I think having players as good as he's had have actually done a disservice to him learning how to manage a game. He relies too much on their talent, and when they meet other talented teams, he comes up short. He is somewhat the opposite of a guy like Ed Cooley. He learned the finer parts as an assistant at Boston College then had to prove he could succeed at Fairfield before getting a bigger job. I realize he's still a work in progress as a game coach, but I think he's well ahead of Pastner, who never really did that slogging through the mud.

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I would agree but that's the risk of hiring a younger guy. I was in favor of the hire when Memphis made it and I still think it was the right move. He's taken criticism, but he got the NCAA Tournament win monkey off his back this past March, and just beat his first Top 25 team a few days ago (which is still hard to believe). Will be interesting to see how they do this year with a step up in competition.

Hiring young is risky but I usually think it's a good way to go. For example, I think Minnesota made the best hire of the offseason by snagging Pitino. They are a hell of a lot more exciting than they were under Tubby at least! If he's successful, I wonder if Louisville hires him to replace his dad?

I think Pitino was a good hire, and while it seems like a small distinction, I like that he had some HC experience. That's my issue more with Pastner than anything. It has worked out with Ollie going from assistant to HC so far, but it seems to me that most of the successful young guys end up cutting their teeth somewhere before having big success. Buzz, Pitino, and Cooley all fit that mold. I have no doubt there are exceptions (Ollie being an obvious one) but I think more often than not guys are better off getting a bit of experience with what goes into being the head man before getting thrown full-speed into it.

I think ECU won the post season CBI or CIT last season.

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Originally Posted by MU/Panther

I think ECU won the post season CBI or CIT last season.

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So you're confirming they are irrelevant?

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Originally Posted by MUBasketball

So you're confirming they are irrelevant?

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They won a post season tourney says alot for that program, in where they used to be. They gave Duke a good fight this year.

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Originally Posted by MUBasketball

So you're confirming they are irrelevant?

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I didn't think the CBI existed anymore. What's the CIT?

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Originally Posted by Mucrisco

I didn't think the CBI existed anymore. What's the CIT?

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The CBI and CIT are both around.

I watched the CIT finals last season on CBSSN
http://www.collegeinsider.com/tourna...le-results.php

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Originally Posted by Mucrisco

I didn't think the CBI existed anymore. What's the CIT?

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College...son_Tournament


Since it is geared toward mid-major conferences, I don't think ECU would be invited any longer.