Villanova

So what do we know about Villanova and how we match up, I know they have had an up and down year but have shown flashes while beating some good teams like Cuse and Louisville... They are fighting for what little hope they have to make the tournament and obviously for them beating MU would be huge for their résumé. I really hope that MU isn't sleeping on this one and looking at the big matchup on Monday.

I would say there is no way in hell we are sleeping on anybody. This team pretty clearly wants to win the Big East title.

Nova has some talent. Yarou, Pinkston, Hilliard, Bell and the frosh point guard are all good players. Big game for them and for us. We will have to play well to win.

According to Pomeroy they are better then us defensively but not as good on "O".

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Originally Posted by BuzzWilliams4Pres

So what do we know about Villanova and how we match up, I know they have had an up and down year but have shown flashes while beating some good teams like Cuse and Louisville... They are fighting for what little hope they have to make the tournament and obviously for them beating MU would be huge for their résumé. I really hope that MU isn't sleeping on this one and looking at the big matchup on Monday.

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Nova has more then little hope to make the tourney. If it started today, I think they would be in, though a good chance that they would be in a play-in game. Beating us could damn near punch their ticket, though they could still take two out of their final three afterward to get to the magical 10 Big East wins (after us, they have Georgetown at home, Hall and Pitt on the road).

Their strength is on defense, as they are 38th in defensive efficiency on the year (MU is 64th) and third in conference play (MU is 8th). On offense, they do not shoot it well and do not take care of the ball (296th in turnover percentage). However, they lead the country in free throw rate, so we have to be careful not to foul them.

We have yet to win at the Pavillion, and I am not ready to predict that the streak ends. I think this game is a true toss up, as both teams badly need the game and are fairly evenly matched. Recent play has me a bit more optimistic about our chances, but deep down I am probably expecting a loss.

The game is at the Pavilion, not the Wells Fargo Center, which I have to say I'm not thrilled about.

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Originally Posted by Markedman

Nova has some talent. Yarou, Pinkston, Hilliard, Bell and the frosh point guard are all good players. Big game for them and for us. We will have to play well to win.

According to Pomeroy they are better then us defensively but not as good on "O".

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Like the fact that their talent, as far as big guys go, is not that which will be a bad match up for Davante. He should be able to compete well on Saturday given the Villanova bigs don't have superior length like Louisville. Our guards will need to play well. Please bring your A game Junior!!!!!

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Originally Posted by warriorfan4life

Nova has more then little hope to make the tourney. If it started today, I think they would be in, though a good chance that they would be in a play-in game. Beating us could damn near punch their ticket

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Not sure that's the case, even following ESPN's weekly chat with their basketball writers they are still saying Nova's out, they just do not have a good résumé right now, granted they have a lot of opportunities left.

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Originally Posted by MUAlphaBangura

Like the fact that their talent, as far as big guys go, is not that which will be a bad match up for Davante. He should be able to compete well on Saturday given the Villanova bigs don't have superior length like Louisville. Our guards will need to play well. Please bring your A game Junior!!!!!

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Davante will have a chip on his shoulder since he was injured by Nova's Yarou last year.

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Originally Posted by BuzzWilliams4Pres

Not sure that's the case, even following ESPN's weekly chat with their basketball writers they are still saying Nova's out, they just do not have a good résumé right now, granted they have a lot of opportunities left.

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I think he was commenting on your comment of saying Nova has "little hope of making the tournament" which isn't correct.

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Originally Posted by BuzzWilliams4Pres

Not sure that's the case, even following ESPN's weekly chat with their basketball writers they are still saying Nova's out, they just do not have a good résumé right now, granted they have a lot of opportunities left.

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Nova is currently the last team in on the Bracket Matrix. Also, I think they have an edge over a couple of SEC teams listed ahead of them (Ole Miss and Kentucky without Noel).

I'll take a Liter at OGBH bet with anyone for before the ND game that we won't win this one. I have L-W-W-W-L for the final 5 and the 2 seed for the BEast, locking us up as a 4 seed in the tourny and COY honors for one Brent Williams.

I think we win all that are left except Cuse and we end up co-champs but end up the 3 seed due to tie breakers.

Not beating St. John's on the road on their Senior Day. Their length is going to cause a lot of problems. Guaranteed.

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Originally Posted by MUBasketball

Not beating St. John's on the road on their Senior Day. Their length is going to cause a lot of problems. Guaranteed.

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I agree that Johnnies length could give us issues, but they have no seniors in their rotation (and no juniors for that matter).

If MU wins Saturday and beats Cuse Monday, they will win out and be reglar season BE Champions...alone.

And if the Queen had nads, she'd be a King.

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Originally Posted by Phantom Warrior

And if the Queen had nads, she'd be a King.

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It always amazes me how many MU fans NEVER believe in their own team...and yet here this team is...9-3 and tied for the league lead. How far do they have to go before they make believers out of their own fans?? It's generally like this every year too. It has always confused me. Only thing i can think of is MU fans like a "good story" and a David(MU) Slaying Goliath(everyone they play) mentality, because it's a "feel good" story. It's about time MU fans wake up and realize this team is just good. As have past MU teams been.

ok Ice, take my bet then: a Liter at OGBH that we lose Saturday

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Originally Posted by bleedbluegold03

ok Ice, take my bet then: a Liter at OGBH that we lose Saturday

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I'll take your bet and up the ante to 2

Alex, bets between you and I never turn out well for you. that being said, you're on

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Originally Posted by MU_Iceman

It always amazes me how many MU fans NEVER believe in their own team...and yet here this team is...9-3 and tied for the league lead. How far do they have to go before they make believers out of their own fans?? It's generally like this every year too. It has always confused me. Only thing i can think of is MU fans like a "good story" and a David(MU) Slaying Goliath(everyone they play) mentality, because it's a "feel good" story. It's about time MU fans wake up and realize this team is just good. As have past MU teams been.

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It always amazes me that some fans view this team through Rose colored glasses. Nobody has ever said that this team is bad and won't win certain games. I think that most fans are realistic, see the flaws in this team and understand that it is very difficult to win on the road vs. good teams. It is also very difficult to win games against someone who is in the Top 10 regardless of venues.

This team while very good has been inconsistent and does not match up well vs athletic, long, fast paced typed teams. Syracuse and SJU fit that bill and Villanova isn't that far behind.

3-3 would be the baseline for me with 5-1 being the upper hand range.

Sorry if that is pessimistic for you.

I'm going to agree with Iceman here. I don't think it takes rose-colored glasses to see that this team has a great shot to win the Big East. Doesn't mean it's a sure thing or that it won't be difficult, but this team is 10-3 (not 9-3). Tough games left, to be sure, but the toughest opponents are at home where we are riding a lengthy winning streak. I'm past the point of being pessimistic about this team.

Some people are optimistic by nature...some are pessimistic. No need to quibble because it really doesn't have any significant impact on what happens on the floor.

I don't call it pessimism, I call it realism :cool:

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Originally Posted by kneelb4zerg

I'm going to agree with Iceman here. I don't think it takes rose-colored glasses to see that this team has a great shot to win the Big East. Doesn't mean it's a sure thing or that it won't be difficult, but this team is 10-3 (not 9-3). Tough games left, to be sure, but the toughest opponents are at home where we are riding a lengthy winning streak. I'm past the point of being pessimistic about this team.

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Thank You kneel! No doubt in my mind, if they win Saturday and then win Monday...they run the table and win the Big East outright. Saturday's game will determine if they will or won't though, as crazy as that sounds...lose Tomm, and it's going to be tough(at least to win it outright, but I think Cuse has at least one more loss in them yet if not against MU), win, and as far as I'm concerned, they will control their own destiny.

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Originally Posted by IrwinFletcher

This team while very good has been inconsistent and does not match up well vs athletic, long, fast paced typed teams. Syracuse and SJU fit that bill and Villanova isn't that far behind.

3-3 would be the baseline for me with 5-1 being the upper hand range.

Sorry if that is pessimistic for you.

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I agree with this. The way I see it, the toughest games left are Cuse, Nova, and St. John's. If they manage to go 2-1 in those games, I think they at least win a share of the league title.

Cuse and Georgetown will beat each other once. The team I worry about is Louisville. Their schedule is not that difficult.

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Originally Posted by MU_Iceman

Thank You kneel! No doubt in my mind, if they win Saturday and then win Monday...they run the table and win the Big East outright. Saturday's game will determine if they will or won't though, as crazy as that sounds...lose Tomm, and it's going to be tough(at least to win it outright, but I think Cuse has at least one more loss in them yet if not against MU), win, and as far as I'm concerned, they will control their own destiny.

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I think the problem some fans have, myself included, are these bold statements. I'm a stats guy by nature. I believe MU has a 75% chance to win tomorrow and a 60% chance to win on Monday. The likelihood of both happening, if those are the appropriate percentages, is 45%. That's why I won't be surprised or devastated should a loss occur in either one of those games. Maybe that make me a pessimist, but I like to play the odds.

I don't have access to Pomeroy's game by game stats but my guess is tomorrows odds are much less then 75%...more like 50-55. Syracuse game is probably closer to 50-50 then 60-40.

FWIW Vegas has Nova as a 2 point favorite....opened at 1.

Sagarin says MU by 1.

If I had to pick one to win I would hope we can get Monday's win... that being said I feel 10x more confident about Nova than I do Cuse even though we have them at home. For whatever reason Syracuse just isn't a good matchup for us most years, I really hope that this year is different.

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Originally Posted by Markedman

I don't have access to Pomeroy's game by game stats but my guess is tomorrows odds are much less then 75%...more like 50-55. Syracuse game is probably closer to 50-50 then 60-40.

FWIW Vegas has Nova as a 2 point favorite....opened at 1.

Sagarin says MU by 1.

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I'm sure the official % is around 50, I was giving my belief. Yet, I'm considered a pessimist by some.