Lunardi

Printable View

12-14-2015, 05:34 PM
Markedman

Lunardi

Not enough quality teams yet to fill out the field. Some people freaking out that he has UW(41)still in the field.

42-Mich, 43-VALPO, 44-Cal, 45-Vcu, 46-WICHITA, 47-Unlv. FIRST OUT: Marq, ArizSt, Tulsa, Richmond. NEXT OUT: NoIowa, Colorado, OreSt, NMexico
12-14-2015, 07:04 PM
MU/Panther

Northern Iowa who beat #1 North Carolina is out. :eek:
12-14-2015, 07:31 PM
Halo

That is ridiculous UW is in though. 5 losses with 3 at home when they were favored strongly each time? Beat an average Syracuse team as their only achievement.
12-14-2015, 07:46 PM
warriorfan4life

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halo

That is ridiculous UW is in though. 5 losses with 3 at home when they were favored strongly each time? Beat an average Syracuse team as their only achievement.

Also a win over a decent VCU win a neutral court. I think Marquette belongs in ahead of them, but Wisconsin likely gets in NCAA's with a 10-8 Big Ten finish.
12-14-2015, 08:54 PM
IrwinFletcher

What this does show is that MU is in pretty decent shape despite a light non conference schedule. Even 9-9 in the conference still gives us a shot. 10-8 plus a win in the conf tourney and we are a lock. Wouldn't hurt if ASU and LSU pick things up a bit to help us out.
12-14-2015, 09:06 PM
Markedman

I don't think 9-9 is going to do it. 10-8 might give you a shot if the bubble is soft.

Teams get penalized every year for non conference schedules like the one we have this year. If we are one of the last teams to be considered it will likely cost us a bid.
12-14-2015, 09:15 PM
MUwarrior1090

Someone did ask Lunardi how many teams he thinks make it from the Big East, and he said 6. Assuming Marquette is his 6th.

Means nothing, but yeah.
12-14-2015, 10:18 PM
MKE_GoldenEagleFan

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...son/LSU/MARQET

We certainly have a weak resume right now, conference will help, but man LSU is hurting us a lot because that was expected to be a top 100 win
12-14-2015, 10:39 PM
kneelb4zerg

Gonna go out on a limb and say if we are close Ellenson gets us in.
12-14-2015, 11:10 PM
warriorfan4life

I think that 10-8 plus one win in the Garden, or a flat 11-7 gets us in. While our RPI will likely linger in problem areas, I do believe that our Pomeroy ranking will vault into the top 50 and the committee looked at that a lot more heavily last year.
12-14-2015, 11:47 PM
CaribouJim

Quote:

Originally Posted by warriorfan4life

I think that 10-8 plus one win in the Garden, or a flat 11-7 gets us in. While our RPI will likely linger in problem areas, I do believe that our Pomeroy ranking will vault into the top 50 and the committee looked at that a lot more heavily last year.

I don't think 11-7 is a slam dunk as I agree - MU's RPI will be a lingering problem. Get at least one BE tourney win. Would be nice to make a run in the BE tourney for once as well.
12-15-2015, 08:23 AM
MUfan12

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaribouJim

I don't think 11-7 is a slam dunk as I agree - MU's RPI will be a lingering problem. Get at least one BE tourney win. Would be nice to make a run in the BE tourney for once as well.

If MU gets to 11 BE wins, they will have beaten some top teams to get there. That should be enough to get them in.
12-15-2015, 08:43 AM
TrevorCandelino

11-7 in a top five RPI league makes any team a lock.
12-15-2015, 08:43 AM
farmerdoc

Quote:

Originally Posted by MUfan12

If MU gets to 11 BE wins, they will have beaten some top teams to get there. That should be enough to get them in.

Got to believe this is true, also, do not discount the effect that Henry could have in moving us off the bubble. If he continues to play well, and looks like a All-American, it only helps our case.
12-15-2015, 12:46 PM
kneelb4zerg

Quote:

Originally Posted by farmerdoc

Got to believe this is true, also, do not discount the effect that Henry could have in moving us off the bubble. If he continues to play well, and looks like a All-American, it only helps our case.

Exactly.
12-15-2015, 12:46 PM
unclejohn

So we would need to sweep the bottom four and beat at least a couple of the top five at home. Doable I would think. Of course, slip-ups will kill us and road wins against quality will be a big plus.
12-15-2015, 02:24 PM
Markedman

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrevorCandelino

11-7 in a top five RPI league makes any team a lock.

It doesn't Trevor.

Warriorfan4life and Brewcity have mentioned numerous teams in the last 5 years from power conferences that have been 4 games over .500 in conference and still not made it.

The committee head says it every year........"overall body of work"........non conference matters.
12-15-2015, 02:32 PM
MUMac

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markedman

It doesn't Trevor.

Warriorfan4life and Brewcity have mentioned numerous teams in the last 5 years from power conferences that have been 4 games over .500 in conference and still not made it.

The committee head says it every year........"overall body of work"........non conference matters.

True, but one difference is the balanced schedule. Those you cite have unbalanced conference schedules. That does make a difference. If the BE ends up as one of the top 3 conferences, playing a balanced schedule and being 4 games over .500 will mean a lot.
12-15-2015, 03:00 PM
Markedman

Quote:

Originally Posted by MUMac

True, but one difference is the balanced schedule. Those you cite have unbalanced conference schedules. That does make a difference. If the BE ends up as one of the top 3 conferences, playing a balanced schedule and being 4 games over .500 will mean a lot.

I agree Mac. I guess my quibble was with the word "lock".

11-7 could well be good enough but with this non conference schedule it isn't a sure thing.
12-15-2015, 03:05 PM
MUMac

I agree, I would still sweat out the NCAA Selection Show at 11-7.
12-15-2015, 03:57 PM
MKE_GoldenEagleFan

It is just so hard to say right now without seeing who else is on the bubble and what their resume is and how ours ultimately shakes out. I would tend to believe 11-7 gets it done, however without having everything in front of us it's impossible to say. In my opinion it's too soon to start talking NCAA tournament chances till mid way through conference season.
12-15-2015, 05:30 PM
ValiantSailor

Almost everyone experiences upsets every year. The ones that we experience - both wins and losses - will determine our postseason.

VS
12-15-2015, 06:32 PM
Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"
Quote:

Originally Posted by TrevorCandelino

11-7 in a top five RPI league makes any team a lock.

LOL

I posted this over on Scoop in a related discussion. Let's see just how wrong you are:
.
- 2015: They left out RPI 47 Miami at 21-12 (10-8) from the ACC & RPI 68 Texas A&M at 20-11 (11-7) from the SEC.
- 2014: They left out RPI 53 SMU at 23-9 (12-6) from the AAC, RPI 77 Arkansas at 21-11 (10-8) from the SEC, and RPI 67 St. John's at 20-12 (10-8) from the Big East.
- 2013: They left out RPI 76 Virginia at 21-11 (11-7) from the ACC and RPI 60 Alabama at 21-12 (12-6).
- 2012: They left out RPI 61 Washington at 21-10 (14-4), RPI 63 Oregon at 22-9 (13-5) and RPI 76 Arizona at 23-11 (12-6) from the Pac-12.
- 2011: They left out RPI 62 Virginia Tech at 21-11 (9-7) from the ACC and RPI 80 Alabama at 21-11 (14-4) from the SEC.
.
If they can leave out power conference teams that win 20+ games overall and 14+ games in conference, I'm pretty sure they could leave out an 11-7 Big East team. Every single year for the past five at least two teams with 20+ wins and winning conference records from high major conferences got left out. Every single year. And I only went back five years. I'm confident if I went back further, I'd find more.

If we go 11-7 in league play and are coming in at 22-10 with a loss in the first game of the BET, we'll have a RPI right around 60. Will we get in? Maybe. I think we'd have a shot. Would that be a better resume than Miami last year, than SMU two years ago, than Alabama in 2013, Washington in 2012, or Alabama in 2011? Not really.

23 total wins is the magic number. Maybe we get in with 22. It's possible. Not probable, but possible. 21 or less and I'd recommend heading to the BC and getting in line. At least in the NIT we should get a home game.
12-15-2015, 07:44 PM
CaribouJim

Quote:

Originally Posted by farmerdoc

Got to believe this is true, also, do not discount the effect that Henry could have in moving us off the bubble. If he continues to play well, and looks like a All-American, it only helps our case.

Can you cite some examples where this came into play? The process for picking teams is pretty transparent, to the NCAA's credit. It's pretty scientific and helps explain why Lunardi can be so darn accurate year after year. I don't think they consciously throw a qualitative assessment like that into the mix. If a Henry Ellenson and/or Ben Simmons have stellar AA type seasons that don't translate into enough wins their respective teams don't get in IMO. I can't see a scenario where the selection committee states they took team A over team B even though their resume was less deserving because the play of AA candidate John Doe. They would get slaughtered.
12-16-2015, 10:11 AM
farmerdoc

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaribouJim

Can you cite some examples where this came into play? The process for picking teams is pretty transparent, to the NCAA's credit. It's pretty scientific and helps explain why Lunardi can be so darn accurate year after year. I don't think they consciously throw a qualitative assessment like that into the mix. If a Henry Ellenson and/or Ben Simmons have stellar AA type seasons that don't translate into enough wins their respective teams don't get in IMO. I can't see a scenario where the selection committee states they took team A over team B even though their resume was less deserving because the play of AA candidate John Doe. They would get slaughtered.

Nope, no examples, I would doubt that the committee would every admit it. However, if we are on the bubble, and our resume is similar to another team, the "star power" could be taken into account. If we continue to improve, I really don't think we will be a bubble team, so it won't matter.