Bracket Thoughts...

So I just finished pouring over the bracket and thought I'd post some thoughts. Would love to hear what everyone else is thinking.

Final Four: Florida, Michigan State, Arizona, Louisville

I think Florida has a pretty clear road. Kansas is the strongest opposition, but who knows how Embiid will be if he even plays. I didn't want to pick the Spartans, but the bracket just opened up for them. Remember, this Michigan State team had only won 5 of 12 before the BTT. But I'm not at all sold on Virginia, and have a lot of faith in Izzo in March. Arizona, like Florida, has a pretty clear path. I don't see them running into a lot of trouble. I think Louisville will have some trouble with Wichita State, but like the Cards to advance. My bracket gave them a break by playing Tennessee in the Elite Eight.

National Champion: Louisville

I picked the Cards last year and like them again this year. It's a veteran team with some great leadership. Tough to beat Pitino this time of year.

The Dreaded 5/12: Harvard over Cincy, North Dakota State over Oklahoma, Xavier over St. Louis

I think it's another tough year for 5-seeds. The only one I have surviving the first weekend is North Dakota State. They have an incredibly high eFG% and are a great free throw shooting team, which will help in close games.

Biggest Upset: NC Central over Iowa State

No one is talking about this as a potential upset, which baffles me. Central beat NC State and were competitive early with Cincy and Maryland. The Eagles play a tough brand of defense in terms of eFG% and turning teams over. They come from the MEAC, a conference known for pulling upsets, most recently Norfolk State over Mizzou as a 15/2 a couple years ago.

Big East Prognosis: Villanova Round of 32, Providence Sweet 16, Creighton Elite 8, Xavier Round of 32

I never thought I'd pick Creighton Deep, but they got a great draw. Lafayette and Baylor are the exact types of teams they beat. Wisconsin could be tough, but Creighton beat them last year and is better this year. The pack line defense will wreak havoc on Bucky's one-man front line. I was disappointed to pick UConn over both 'Nova and Providence, but I think the Huskies will be tough. Xavier loses early but to my eventual national champs.

Surprise Deep Run: Tennessee to the Elite 8

The Volunteers are a solid team. I think they handle Iowa and UMass pretty easily, then take out Duke to get everyone's attention. The Blue Devils have an incredibly weak defense. They keep it rolling against surprise Sweet 16 team Arizona State before falling to Louisville.