Formula for Getting an At-Large/Seed Range

Like our last rough non-conference slate (2010-2011), this is an NCAA Tournament caliber team that has yet to put together a tournament resume (we were 40th in Pomeroys at this point that season, and are 41st now). This version of the Big East should finish fourth in Conference RPI, which normally translates to 4-5 bids for that league. Villanova, Creighton, Xavier, Butler, and possibly Georgetown enter with better resumes (though in Hoyas case, they have Northeastern loss to counteract VCU win). However, I think Villanova is the only team that is head and shoulders better then us, and a second place finish is quite possible. In general though, here is what we are looking at:

16-18 wins: Our only chance to get the type of seed we got the last two years, and unfortunately not realistic.
14-15 wins: This would get something in the 5-7 range seed wise. I had us at 14-4 at the start of the year, and performance wise we are not far off where I expected to be right now (just thought that the record would be 9-3 now). Still, this will be a tough record to accumulate barring an unexpected breakout performance from someone, as the league is deeper then I expected and Nova will be a tough nut to crack no matter the location.
12-13 wins: Should be enough to get us into the tournament. If we go 13-5 (my current prediciton), we will likely get stuck in 8-9 game and hope to see the right one seed. At 12-6, we should get in without a trip to Dayton, but get a double digit seed (which is actually better then being an 8/9). If we go 12-6 and lose our first game in New York, then Dayton is a possibility.
11 wins: If we go 11-7 and win a couple in New York, we probably get an at large, but a likely trip to Dayton to go with the bid.
10 wins or worse: The NCAA streak is broken barring winning it all in New York.

good stuff. Over the last few years it seems like the bubble has had very weak team resumes so I think we are still in the hunt for an at large. But, this team needs to get it's act together in a hurry.

Thanks for this.

I think one thing to remember is that this years schedule sort of fell the wrong way. Only one big non conference game was at home. Last year we got Wisconsin and LSU at home (which we almost gave away). This year OSU really early, Wisconsin on the road, and all the other important games were out west. I thought we'd be at least one game better but don't think we are performing as badly as most fans seem to think.

Of course, none of this matters if we don't build a tournament resume, but people predicting a terrible Big East record are forgetting that we are a terrific home team, to begin with.

Playing San Diego an hour from their campus and New Mexico pretty close to theirs I imagine also didn't help. Wouldn't say either were really "neutral" sites based on what you saw of the fans there.

I'm not ready to push the panic button yet. Buzz's teams peak in February and March. Barring injuries, I could see us taking the Big East Tourney almost no matter the regular season record. That said, we'll win at least 7 at home, probably more. Go .500ish on the road and I think we are still dancing.