• The Secondary "One-and-Done" Market


    Matt Carlino's 15.0 ppg/3.7 rpg/3.0 apg would match expectations for most "one-and-done"
    point guards, and highlights the impact a "one-and-done" graduate transfer can have

    In college basketball, the term “one-and-done” has become the popular way of describing the top freshmen in the country. In seven of the last eight NBA drafts, a college freshman has been the first player drafted and these elite recruits are expected to put up big numbers in their first, and often only, year in the game.

    However, for every Kentucky, Kansas, or Duke that can regularly attract these types of players, there are scores of schools that will rarely, if ever, attract recruits of this level of talent. With the rampant transfers in the sport, a secondary “one-and-done” market has evolved. In the right situation, an immediately eligible graduate transfer can provide similar production and impact to programs savvy enough to land them.

    Marquette has benefited from this twice in the past few years. While Trent Lockett wasn’t able to duplicate his scoring from Arizona State, he led the 2012-13 team in rebounding and was second in assists (7.0 ppg/5.1 rpg/1.8 apg), while putting together some of his best performances in the NCAA Tournament as he helped Marquette to the Elite Eight. This past year, Matt Carlino led the team in scoring and blistered the nets from three, putting up numbers worthy of a one-and-done level player (15.0 ppg/3.7 rpg/3.1 apg/41.9 3P%).

    Marquette wasn’t the only program to have success with these players. Both Bryce Dejean-Jones (10.5 ppg/4.7 rpg for Iowa State) and MJ Rhett (7.4 ppg/4.6 rpg for Ole Miss) put up respectable numbers to help their teams to the NCAA Tournament. Like any form of recruiting, however, the system is far from foolproof. Coveted transfer Anthony Lee (13.6 ppg/8.6 rpg at Temple in 2013-14) could barely get off the bench for Ohio State while expected impact scorer Ian Chiles (15.8 ppg/3.2 rpg at IUPUI in 2013-14) saw a mere 14 minutes in his graduate season at Tennessee.

    The transfer season is upon us again, and with Steve Wojiechowski looking to get Marquette back to the Tournament, the staff is taking a close look at the secondary one-and-done market. The most evident needs for this team seem to be rebounding in the front court, three-point shooting, and and experienced ball-handler/distributor. Here are the 10 available players I feel best meet some of those needs.


    1. Damion Lee, 6’6” SF, Drexel: On paper, Lee looks like the perfect fit for Marquette. He is a good rebounder (gets 17.1% of opponents’ misses) and three point shooter (38.9% with 63 makes). He seems like the ideal piece to fit into a frontcourt with Luke Fischer and Henry Ellenson. Of course, most teams could use a guy that averaged 21.4 ppg/6.1 rpg/2.3 apg. It seems unlikely Lee would duplicate those numbers in the Big East, but against high-major teams last year (4 games) he did average 16.5 ppg/5.0 rpg/2.3 apg. Anything close to that would be a huge boost for any team. Marquette, Clemson, and Wake Forest are all confirmed as interested in Lee, though the favorite for the Baltimore native would likely be Maryland with former AAU teammate Melo Trimble.

    2. Shonn Miller, 6’8” PF, Cornell: Ivy League rules make it difficult for graduate students to continue playing, which has Miller looking for a new home. He is one of the best defensive rebounders in the country (gets 28.2% of opponents’ misses, 6th in the nation) but has impressive numbers all around, averaging 16.8 ppg/8.6 rpg/1.8 bpg. Miller is also reliable from the line (83.4 FT%) and can also step out to hit the three (27.5% with 28 makes). The only question would seem to be if he and Ellenson can coexist sharing the 3 and 4 roles. If Wojo could get them to play together, Miller would likely help on offense while providing a huge boost on defense. Marquette, UConn, Illinois, Michigan, Boston College and California have all shown interest.


    3. Anthony Collins, 6’1” PG, South Florida: There are better scorers and shooters, but Collins is probably the best true point guard on the market. His assist numbers last year (5.2 apg, assisted on 31.0% of teammates’ made FGs) were excellent, and also the worst of his career. This is a guy that can flat out find the open man and distribute the basketball. He’s not a big scorer (7.1 ppg last year) but isn’t a bad shooter (career 77.8 FT%/33.0 3P%), just an infrequent one. Collins is also no stranger to the Big East, as his USF team was in the league his freshman and sophomore years, including the Bulls’ NCAA bid in 2012.No word yet on interested parties.

    4. Adam Smith, 6’1” SG, Virginia Tech: Smith’s long-range shooting (42.4 3P% with 81 makes) immediately jumps off the page, especially as he was the leading scorer and offensive focal point for a team playing high-major competition. While he doesn’t seem to fit the point guard role (7.2 assist rate was equal to Luke Fischer’s), I’m not so sure that wasn’t just a case of being used differently in Buzz Williams’ offense. As a sophomore, Smith often played like a second point guard (2.1 apg/22.2 assist rate) and he has always been excellent at protecting the ball(top-150 turnover rate in each of his qualifying seasons). No word on interested parties, but if any players can sell a guy on the benefits of Wojo over Williams, they’re at Marquette.


    5. Trey Lewis, 6’2” SG, Cleveland State: Lewis can shoot the ball (42.3 3P% with 96 makes) and had some great all-around numbers (16.3 ppg/4.4 rpg/2.9 apg). I’m not sure how well his skills would translate moving up to the high-major level, but to his credit he was originally recruited to a Big 10 school (Penn State). Lewis has a long line of suitors including Georgetown, Indiana, Illinois, and the perceived leader, Louisville.

    6. Rafael Maia, 6’9” PF, Brown: Maia faces a similar situation to Miller regarding Ivy League graduate student rules. He provides some offense with a lot of rebounding (9.9 ppg/8.7 rpg) and is one of the best players in the country at drawing fouls down low (92.9 FT Rate was 5th best in the country). He’s one of the best offensive rebounders of the immediately eligible transfer possibilities. Maia would face a similar situation in how he would fit in alongside both Ellenson and Fischer, and isn’t as reliable a scoring option as Miller, which has him further down. He would be a solid, if not spectacular, addition. Pitt, Boston College, and Rice are all showing interest.


    7. Sterling Smith, 6’4” SF, Coppin State: Of all the players on this list, Smith might be the only one that could improve Marquette in every criteria listed above. His numbers are solid all-around (13.9 ppg/4.9 rpg/1.6 apg). He isn’t a board destroyer like Miller or Maia, but he does get to his share. He can shoot about as well as anyone on the list (41.8 3P% with 76 makes). He’s not a point guard, but he doesn’t turn the ball over and would at least be functional most times as a secondary ball-handler. The knock is that he played on a bad team in a weak conference, so how well his abilities would translate to the next level are certainly a question mark. So far he has interest from Nevada and New Mexico State, both closer to his home in California and decidedly mid-major. If Wojo misses on bigger names, Smith could be a nice fallback option.

    8. Jordan Daniels, 5’10” PG, Drake: His 2015 numbers won’t dazzle you, but that could be because a coach that didn’t recruit him (Ray Giacoletti) suddenly had a freshman he could play ahead of Daniels (Reed Timmer) that he did recruit. In two years at Drake, Daniels was solid if not spectacular, proving reliable from three (41.9 3P% with 62 makes) and the line (88.4 FT%). His numbers slumped this year, but the 10.2 ppg/2.6 apg were encouraging the year before, and he would definitely fit the role of the experienced ball-handler and distributor. That’s not why Daniels stands out, however. He was recruited to Drake by then-head coach Mark Phelps, who also had Brett Nelson on his staff. Both of them are now at Marquette. No word on suitors yet, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Phelps and Nelson try to sell their new boss on the guy they recruited but never got to see play for them before Phelps was fired.


    9. Galal Cancer, 6’2” PG, Cornell: It’s a little surprising to see two guys in the same situation from the same school, but could Miller and Cancer be a veritable package deal? Cancer has consistently improved his game and put up career numbers (9.6 ppg/3.4 rpg/3.0 apg) this past season. At the same time, his shooting from range (38.1 3P% with 24 makes) and the line (81.2 FT%) were career bests. He may not be as much a sniper as others on the list, but he seems to fit the mold of ball-handler and three-point shooter. If Wojo is in need of a guard, Cancer could be an under-the-radar option.

    10. Austin McBroom, 5’9” PG, St. Louis: The diminutive PG ticks the boxes as a shooter (42.9 3P% with 42 makes) and ball-handler (20.2 assist rate, 16.9 turnover rate), though there might be concern about a guy who lost his minutes to freshman Marcus Bartley in mid-January. It was an interesting move, prior to McBroom’s minutes drop, the Billikens were 8-8 and McBroom averaged 26.5 mpg/9.7 ppg/1.8 apg. After that point, the Billikens went 3-13 and McBroom posted 13.9 mpg/3.4 ppg/1.4 apg. If McBroom was willing to platoon the point guard role, he could be a valuable addition. No word on interested parties yet.

    Others Considered: Quintin Brewer, PF, Bethune-Cookman; Aaron Cosby, PG, Illinois; Derrick Gordon, PG, Massachusetts; Denton Koon, PF, Princeton; Angel Nunez, PF, Gonzaga; Mike Thorne, C, Charlotte

    Not Transferring: Every day I scour Twitter for “John Brown High Point.” He might be the best player in the country that most people haven’t heard of. He’s an incredible high-flyer that Jay Bilas calls the “best dunker in college basketball” and a potential NBA talent. He can score, rebound, block shots, and would be a great addition to most any high-major with postseason aspirations. He recently decided he would forgo the NBA Draft and return to High Point for his senior season despite being graduate transfer eligible. There go my dreams of finally getting the “player to be named later” in the Dave Singleton trade. Best of luck to John, and if you want to see some great dunks, look him up on YouTube.