Josh Richardson, Brandon Clark, EC Matthews & Perry Ellis will all play for
the right to take on Marquette on the final day of the Orlando Classic
Tennessee
The Coach: First-year coach Donnie Tyndall has had success at every stop. He twice took Morehead State to the NCAAs, including an upset of Louisville in 2011, and followed that up with a 56-17 record in two seasons at Southern Miss. The story on him now, however, is that he’s coming under fire from the NCAA for possible rule infractions while at USM.
Projected Starters: G Kevin Punter (Jr), G Robert Hubbs, III (So), F Josh Richardson (Sr), F Armani Moore (Jr), C Willie Carmichael (Fr)
Key Returning Players: Josh Richardson (10.3 ppg/2.9 rpg) had a great NCAA Tournament, averaging 19.3 points as Tennessee made the Sweet 16.
Key Newcomers: Punter was a JUCO All-American last year while Devon Baulkman earned JUCO all-conference honors. The Vols also add two transfers. Memphis big man transfer Dominic Woodson was a top-100 recruit in 2013 & will be immediately eligible while IUPUI graduate transfer Ian Chiles (15.8 ppg/3.2 rpg) will be expected to add some instant offense. Carmichael & four-star wing Detrick Mostella are the two freshmen expected to add the most value.
On The Court: Tyndall’s teams usually play slow. They won’t be as slow as the Vols were under Cuonzo Martin, but only once have any of his teams been in the top third of the country in adjusted tempo. Look for a lot of ball screens and motion as Tyndall models his offense on Bill Self’s Kansas team. On defense, Tyndall plans to run full-court pressure before moving to a 2-3 zone in the half-court. The Vols have 9 new players on the roster, so don’t be surprised if they look disjointed early in the season.
Season Projection: The coaches picked Tennessee 13th in the 14-team SEC, so expectations are low. The Vols play a tough non-conference that includes VCU, Kansas State, Butler, & a trip to NC State in addition to the Orlando Classic. Despite being a massive rebuild, there are reasons for optimism in Knoxville. Punter, Baulkman, Chiles, and Woodson all have more experience than the average newcomer. If they can come together & former 5-star recruit Hubbs can deliver on his potential, the Vols will be better than expected. They likely won’t be a tourney team, but a middle-of-the-pack finish in the SEC is certainly possible.
Santa Clara
The Coach: Kerry Keating has a somewhat schizophrenic record at SCU. While his 114-121 record would lead you to think his teams are usually average, his Broncos have alternated losing records with 20+ win seasons and postseason tourney berths for the past 5 years. If that bizarre trend holds, the Broncos should be pretty good this year.
Projected Starters: G Brandon Clark (Sr), G Jared Brownridge (So), G Jalen Richard (So), F Nate Kratch (So), F Yannick Atanga (Sr)
Key Returning Players: Clark (16.9 ppg/1.4 spg) & Brownridge (17.2 ppg/43.6 3P%) were a lethally efficient guard combination last year. Big man Yannick Atanga (3.0 ppg/5.0 rpg) will need to shoulder the load up front as the Broncos lost their two best bigs from a year ago.
Key Newcomers: Redshirt freshman Emmanuel Ndumanya will contend for starting minutes while freshman Matt Hubbard will also likely be in the mix due to a lack of front court depth. Jarvis Pugh is another redshirt freshman known for his defensive skills. He will likely get on the court from the 2-4 positions.
On The Court: Keating’s teams always work to protect the ball, score in transition, & connect from range. His most successful teams have pushed the tempo. With Clark & Brownridge the focal points this team should be the same. Each of the past four years, at least 36.5% of the Broncos’ field goal attempts have been from beyond the arc. This is a team that wants to turn you over, get up the court, and kick out to the open shooter. With forward Denzel Johnson, the Broncos could go to a small lineup that features all five players able to hit the three. On defense, if SCU doesn’t turn a team over, they are beatable. They will likely stick to man defense but they aren’t very good at attacking the defensive glass, which allows teams to open them up for second-chance points. Losing three of their top four rebounding options from last season will only exacerbate that deficiency.
Season Projection: Keating’s teams won 24 games in 2010-11 and 26 in 2012-13. Despite being picked 7th in the West Coast, this team has the weapons to challenge for the top half of the conference. While the Broncos have some holes, the things they do best will be even better this year. Their top three snipers are all back & will get major minutes. While they won’t likely crack the top three in the WCC, they should be right in the mix for the top half of the league.
Rhode Island
The Coach: Dan Hurley’s third season at URI should show continued improvement as he molds the roster to fit what he wants to do. He is perhaps best known for his bloodline that includes former NBA player Bobby Hurley & the man that swayed Tyshawn Taylor away from Marquette, his father Bob Hurley.
Projected Starters: G Jared Terell (Fr), G TJ Buchanan (Sr), F EC Matthews (So), F Hassan Martin (So), C Gilvydas Biruta (Sr)
Key Returning Players: Matthews (14.3 ppg/4.3 rpg) was a stud as a freshman, Martin (5.7 rpg/2.5 bpg) was the top shot-blocker in the A-10, & former Rutgers player Biruta (10.6/7.0 rpg) is a force in the middle. The lone holdover from the old regime is Buchanan (5.8 ppg/3.2 rpg/2.5 apg) who does a bit of everything. The Rams only graduated one player & have young quality depth off the bench in spades.
Key Newcomers: Jarvis Garrett will compete for immediate minutes as the type of fast & aggressive point guard Hurley wants, while top-100 recruit Terrell is a big time get for the Rams & will compete for early minutes.
On The Court: This is the first year Hurley has the personnel to really play the way he wants to. On offense, they will play fast-paced and aggressive, looking for shots early in the clock & sending numerous guys to crash the glass hoping for put-backs. Defensively, they want to pressure opposing teams, hound them into turnovers, and force quick shots. His Wagner teams were exceptional on defense, forcing turnovers, closing out quickly on shooters, & altering shots. They have quick guards & shot-blockers at multiple positions. This will be a tough defensive team.
Season Projection: Rhode Island is the most overlooked team in the Orlando Classic. Teams like Kansas, Michigan State, Tennessee & Marquette may have more name recognition, but URI has the potential to be very good as well. They are going to speed up the game & routinely go 10-11 deep. The Rams were picked 6th in the A-10, but I would be surprised if they finished that low. While VCU is the clear favorite, URI can definitely challenge for second place in the league. This is a good team that has a solid chance to earn a NCAA berth, & may already have some good publicity before they get to Orlando. They host Nebraska right before they head south & an upset in that game will have them on the NCAA radar early.
Kansas
The Coach: With a 325-68 record in his 11 seasons at Kansas, Bill Self is truly one of the giants in the game. He has never won less than 23 games in a season, has won the Big 12 regular season in 10 of his 11 seasons, been to the Final Four twice, & won a national title.
Projected Starters: G Frank Mason (So), G Wayne Selden (So), F Kelly Oubre (Fr), F Perry Ellis (Jr), C Cliff Alexander (Fr)
Key Returning Players: Ellis (13.5 ppg/6.7 rpg) & Selden (9.7 ppg/2.5 apg) will be expected to carry this team, though there’s plenty of help. Mason (5.5 ppg/2.1 apg) needs to step up into a much bigger role to replace Naadir Tharpe who probably should not have declared for the NBA Draft.
Key Newcomers: Andrew Wiggins & Joel Embiid exit stage left, Kelly Oubre & Cliff Alexander enter stage right. Both players are McDonald’s All-Americans and will be expected to provide instant impact. If Mason doesn’t work out at the point, four-star freshman Devonte Graham is a polished lead guard that already knows how to play in the pick & roll.
On The Court: Self’s teams are nothing if not consistent. He changes pieces but they continue to make shots & win games. On offense, they move the ball a lot. The plan is to get the defense moving from side to side until they break down, then get the ball into the paint or set up an easy drive for a lay-up. The Jayhawks are also highly efficient at scoring in transition, though Self doesn’t like to implement a press in order to create additional baskets. That’s because on defense Kansas never wants to give up easy baskets, & the press gives opponents that opportunity. They will attack the shooter, attack the ball, & mostly stick to a man-to-man defense. While Kansas sent two players to the NBA Lottery, expect his team to still produce. Despite constant roster turnover, Self has only twice finished outside the top-20 in defensive efficiency (25th in 2004-5 & 31st in 2013-14) and is always in the top-50 in offensive efficiency.
Season Projection: Kansas will likely win the Big 12, win 25+ games, & earn a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve done that each of the past 8 years, no reason to expect it to change now. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be invincible early. They have watched their best player(s) depart in the first round of the NBA Draft six of the last eight years, & that turnover sometimes leads to surprising early losses. Oral Roberts, DePaul, Massachusetts, Davidson, Villanova, San Diego State & Colorado have all pulled upsets of the Jayhawks that were unexpected. This team will be very, very good, but that doesn’t mean they will win the Orlando Classic. It doesn’t even mean they’ll beat Rhode Island in their first game.