We may not notice the difference initially. Certainly the conferences will lose tens of thousands at the gate from the loss of the best draw in the Horizon League, and Butler definitely would have been a boost to the conference RPI. But the conference is still going to send one team the NCAA Tournament, it once again will not be Butler, and since Butler wasn't going to set the world on fire this season, the drop in RPI may not be big.
Over the course of the next several years, however, the Horizon League is going to lose its footing as a solid 12-14 RPI conference unless it expands. Pretty much everyone, from coaches to conference officials to fans and beat writers, can agree that adding Oakland is about the closest thing to a slam dunk as the Horizon League can get.
But it's hardly the panacea everyone is looking for. Oakland is good - averaging about 75 in the RPI the last five years - but they're not Butler good, and if they're going to be a real boon they're going to need to find another Keith Benson. Their addition, of course, could be bolstered by not simply stopping at Rochester, Michigan.
Over on the Wright State fan board, they've been discussing going further - much further - and consolidating the Horizon League as a 14 or 16-team conference.
It certainly sounds on the surface to be a puzzling move - aren't you splitting the pot even more? But now that I think of it more and more, the more it sounds like an idea that would strengthen the Horizon League significantly, possibly creating the multi-bid league that Butler was waiting for the conference to become. It's definitely the kind of move that would make even me reconsider pushing for a move to the MVC.
There are candidates - many of them - that would make the Horizon League better. You'd have to think that any team that you're adding would be one that could finish in the top half of the Horizon in any given year. Those teams strengthen conference RPI.
Think of it this way: you're adding Valpos, not Youngstown States.
The Horizon League is surrounded by several conferences in the general geographic region. We share space with the Summit League and the MAC, and we're bordered on the west by the MVC, the south by the OVC, and the east by the CAA and a myriad of other conferences.
In RPI, it's much the same. The Horizon League is consistently behind non-BCS leagues like the MWC, MVC, A10, CAA, WAC and C-USA, and are consistently in front of fellow mid-majors in the MAC, Summit, MAAC, OVC and Patriot League, among others.
Trying to get better as a conference is one way to move up the food chain. Luckily, conference realignment is helping us out on that end.
The WAC, which has been a conference seemingly since the beginning of time, is going out to pasture. Conference realignment has ripped them to shreds, starting with the Pac-10's pilfering of Utah from the Mountain West and Colorado from the Big XII, causing those conferences to raid others to make up for the difference. Boise State, Nevada and Fresno State were taken from the WAC by the Mountain West to make up for losing Utah to the Pac-12, BYU to independence and TCU to the Big East (eventually the Big XII). After that, the WAC's attempts to consolidate itself failed miserably, and it was eventually left broken.
The CAA, consistently one of the best mid-major performers and the only one to put two different teams in the Final Four, lost its star VCU to the A10 and Old Dominion to Conference USA, effectively cutting off its head. George Mason, a school who spurned A10 advances last month, is now left with Drexel heading up a conference of football schools who make up the best FCS football conference in the country, but hardly constitute a powerful mid-major basketball league.
So by merely losing Butler, the Horizon League has moved ahead of the WAC and likely the CAA as well. But there's no chance the conference has of moving ahead of the A10 or Mountain West - they just have too strong of programs. There is a way they can make sure they don't slip further down the totem pole, of course.
Instead of trying to beat those conferences ahead of them, the Horizon League should strongly consider creating the ultimate midwest mid-major superpower (I don't consider the A10 a mid-major - you may feel differently).
Those Wright State fans are onto something. What if we took all of the best teams from the conferences around us, ones that fit my qualifier (likely top-5 finishers if they alone replaced Butler), and created that superpower?
The Horizon League is the only conference that fits the bill. We range from the Green Bay-Chicago corridor on the west to the greater Pittsburgh area on the east, and the conference is saddled with very little baggage.
By baggage, I mean teams that have not done well and likely will never do well. There's only one, and that's Youngstown State. Think about it! Green Bay had a string of dominance in the 1990's that rivaled Butler's recent run. Milwaukee absolutely owned the Horizon from 2003-2006. Wright State has the best facilities in the conference, and won the conference in a year that Butler went to the Sweet 16. Detroit just won the title game, and were very good in the second half of the nineties. Valpo was the best team in the Mid-Con, and they finally gained their footing in 2010-11. UIC has been to the dance in the past decade, and if they can effectively recruit Chicago they should own the conference. Loyola is making headway to do just that by going in a new direction with Porter Moser and pushing the envelope by building all new facilities for their basketball program. They had several 20-win seasons not long ago. Cleveland State, such an afterthought six years ago, has flipped a 180 and is the only Horizon team besides Butler and Milwaukee to get an NCAA Tournament victory, just three years ago. Youngstown State is the only program that has done nothing in men's basketball and can't expect to do anything without major investment in the program.
If the Horizon League continues to add strong performing programs, they will push the underwhelming teams further down the food chain until they're just a blip on the conference radar. Seriously, consider this: the Atlantic 10 had the 240 and 256 teams in the RPI last season, Fordham and Rhode Island. The Horizon League's Chicago schools were both markedly worse, but no doubt Fordham and Rhode Island were buoyed by all of the good ratings for higher teams.
Adding schools that do well in non-conference and carry strong RPI's will have the same buoying effect. Instead of a 310 RPI, Loyola might have had a 275 to 290 RPI. It doesn't sound like much, but in the grand scheme of things it helps everyone else just a little tick more. Instead of Cleveland State with a 42 RPI in 2010-11, they might have been around 38 due to beating teams that are a "little bit better." Would they have been an at-large qualifier then? We don't know, and we won't know until the conference starts getting bigger.
But do big conferences necessarily work? Obviously that's the trend, as five of the six high-majors have added beyond their current allotment. Those moves are for football, however. What does it mean for basketball?
Well, it means simply this: in the A10 and Big East, size matters. The 14 schools of the A10 garnered more at-large bids than any non-BCS conference of the past decade. The Big East's 16 schools pushed the envelope and got nine bids to the 2011 NCAA Tournament, a record. A 14 or 16-team Horizon League wouldn't perform at the level that those conferences perform at. The amount of legit teams in the A10 are more than the Horizon League - the A10 could be a seven-bid league this season. But if the bigger Horizon League were to gain just one at-large bid, the additions were more than worth it.
So what teams would we come up with? The Horizon League, as I said, shares space with the Summit and MAC and is bordered by the MVC, CAA and OVC. The first team would be one you'd take from inside the conference footprint, one that would work with a travel partner currently in the league, would boost ticket sales in at least one arena, and would boost the conference RPI:
Oakland
5-year Average RPI (RealTimeRPI.com): 107.4
Closest Horizon School: Detroit, 21 miles
Recent NCAA Tournaments: 2005, 2010, 2011
Even many Detroit fans will admit, there's no better replacement for Butler than Oakland. Asking the Golden Grizzlies to be the Bulldogs is asking too much of them, but Greg Kampe's team is one of the best around. Oakland and Oral Roberts are the reason the Summit League was so good last year and is a mid-major and not low-major conference. Oakland hasn't had much success in the Big Dance, but they've carried the torch.
For all hypothetical scenarios and all discussions on expansion, Oakland is the first name to pop up. They're close, they're good, they'd establish an immediate blood sport rivalry with Detroit, basically Oakland is the perfect candidate. When you consider that their average RPI is close to 100 even though they've spent that time in the Summit being anchored down by bad teams, you can't help but wonder what their RPI would be playing in the Horizon League. They'd certainly save money on travel costs, but so would Horizon teams - the idea of Wright State and Detroit as travel partners hasn't made much sense, but it's been the best thing the conference could do - adding Oakland would create an easy flight in and out of Detroit.
I group the next two schools together because I feel like you can't talk about one without the other. It's everyone's favorite M-State schools from Kentucky.
Murray State
5-year Average RPI: 106.8
Closest Horizon School: Wright State, 318 miles
Recent NCAA Tournaments:*2004, 2006, 2010, 2012
Morehead State
5-year Average RPI: 140.2
Closest Horizon School: Wright State, 181 miles
Recent NCAA Tournaments:*2009, 2011
Although these two schools play in the awful Ohio Valley Conference, they've maintained ratings that rival most Horizon League schools. Murray State and Morehead State, the two schools that made an impact for the conference in the NCAA Tournament recently. Morehead State did it behind Kenneth Faried in '09 and '11, in the latter year toppling in-state opponent Louisville in the first round.
Murray State is the bigger prize, and I'll give you a couple reasons why. First off, they're the bigger name. The Racers' undefeated run last year was the talk of the country, they are markedly better, they have multiple NCAA Tournament victories, and they didn't ride an NBA stud to do it.
If anything, that last part is the real knock on Morehead State and Oakland. The Eagles did their damage behind the NCAA's all-time career rebounding leader, Kenneth Faried, while the Golden Grizzlies rode Lou Henson National Player of the Year center Keith Benson. Both players are NBA, with Faried in Denver and Benson spending some of this year with Golden State. Isaiah Canaan may get a shot out of Murray State, but he's probably too short in too obscure of a League.
At the end of the day, Murray State is a prize, the kind of program that would go a long way towards fixing the ills we suffer from losing Butler. They're not going to do it alone, but as I've said, there are a bunch of new teams I'd like to see. Let's look at the next one.
Belmont
5-year Average RPI: 88.8
Closest Horizon School: Wright State, 340 miles
Recent NCAA Tournaments:*2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012
The first thing you need to look at is their average RPI. Of the last five years in the Horizon League, You could probably say the best programs are Butler, Cleveland State, Valpo, Milwaukee and Wright State. The Raiders dropped off, but Milwaukee's best year in the RPI out of the last five was 2011, when we finished 92. That's 3.2 behind Belmont's average for crying out loud.
The Bruins understood something about this. Despite going ape all over their Atlantic Sun competition, they were still receiving awful seeds in the NCAA Tournament - their highest being a No. 13 seed in 2011, where they got spanked by Wisconsin. And therein lies the problem with their A-Sun membership - you can't get better seeds in the A-Sun. They won 30 games in 2011 and were awarded a 13-seed. enough said.
So Belmont left the Atlantic Sun for greener pastures: the pastures currently being chewed on by a couple of M-State schools from Kentucky. Their membership in the Ohio Valley Conference becomes effective in less than a month, and their reasons are obvious - Murray State and Morehead State have been able to do damage because they've garnered better seeds while performing at a level similar to Belmont in the past few years. With those three in the OVC starting next year, the conference should get even better, right?
Well, the problem with that is you can have an IQ above 75 and still be an idiot. The OVC will be better, but "better" for the OVC is the 18-20 range, still a one-bid league, still a poorly-seeded automatic qualifier.
Robert Morris
5-year Average RPI: 114
Closest Horizon School: Youngstown State, 59.4 miles
Recent NCAA Tournaments:*2009, 2010
Probably the school that makes the most sense after Oakland. They aren't quite as good as Murray State and they don't have the NCAA Tournament W that Morehead State has, but they're significantly closer than the three schools above them on the list. Adding Robert Morris from the NEC and Oakland from the Summit would allow Cleveland State to be matched with Wright State in travel partners - not the best thing in the world since CSU is a good 220 miles away from WSU, but the truth of the matter is no one remaining in the conference or possibly entering the conference is close enough to Wright State to make them a great travel partner.
RMU, on the other hand, makes a good travel partner with Youngstown State. Operating out of Pittsburgh, the Colonials (awesome name) are only separated from YSU by 60 miles, making it a nice place to fly into, catch a couple games, then fly back. Traveling aside, the Colonials have done a nice job recently, going to two NCAA Tournaments and one NIT. Robert Morris almost beat Villanova in 2010.
The Colonials are in an interesting position in that they are in a tightly-knit basketball conference, but they definitely are the western flank. Only Saint Francis (PA) and Mount St. Mary's are close to them, so moving to the Horizon League is a downturn but not too much of a bad move.
Should the Horizon League add these five schools, the conference would balloon to 14. But are we adding enough? And are the schools good enough? I am taking Big DWSU's proposal a little further east, where I think there's a couple more teams we need to at least talk to about becoming the 15th and 16th teams of the Horizon League. Are they likely additions? No. The distance is fairly great for non-revenue sports travel. But their current conference is falling apart, and they're being left to stand holding the torch for the league members already lost, and they might be swayed to join up with the mid-major power conference forming.
Drexel
5-year Average RPI: 131.4
Closest Horizon School: Youngstown State, 364 miles
Recent NCAA Tournaments:*None (four: 1986, 1994, 1995, 1996)
George Mason
5-year Average RPI: 75.4
Closest Horizon School: Youngstown State, 308 miles
Recent NCAA Tournaments: 2006, 2008, 2011
I know what you're thinking. George Mason has already turned down the A10 (allegedly), so why would they join the Horizon League? Well, the answer is simple: the CAA is a sinking ship today, and they weren't when GMU supposedly said "no thanks" to the A10.
George Mason and Drexel, along with Hofstra and Northeastern, are left as basketball schools (the latter two have both cut football recently) in the FCS power conference. Think of it as if the eight Horizon basketball schools were football and YSU was only basketball. It's a complete separation of philosophy.
The Horizon League has always been a conference of convenience - schools move on when something better comes along - and there's nothing more inconvenient for George Mason and Drexel than to find that their dynamite basketball conference has become a shadow of what it once was. Even a good basketball school with football, Old Dominion, is on their way out to join Conference USA.
With that school gone and Virginia Commonwealth right behind them, the Dragons and Patriots are left in a home where no one is doing well in the sport they care about. William and Mary are all right. But the last time the CAA was won in the regular season or conference tournament by a school other than Drexel, George Mason, VCU or Old Dominion was 2006. You think that was a long time ago? Consider this: the coach of that "other" team in 2006 was Brad Brownell, who was head coach of UNC-Wilmington. The Seahawks have fallen off the map now, and Brownell is back in the Carolinas at the ACC's Clemson. Hell, 2006 was even the last year a school outside that four was in the conference tournament final.
So what's left for these two? To dominate the Colonial Athletic Association? Being the champion of the Colonial is no longer going to mean a bid to the NCAA Tournament between 9 and 11. You're talking, in its best years, a 12-seed unless GMU were to do particularly well. The Patriots and Dragons can become the Butler and mid-2000's Milwaukee of the Colonial, but what did Butler do when offered the chance to join a better conference? Certainly the Horizon, armed to the teeth with 12 good schools and 14 members, would be a better conference. The travel costs in the Horizon would be higher, but flying to the midwest is cheaper than flying to Boston and New York.
And there's no getting around it - the Horizon League would be tougher, stronger, bigger - it would be something like the Atlantic 10 light.
Why would George Mason refuse membership in the A10? Perhaps they thought the A10 would be too difficult to win, or VCU had told them they didn't want to go and changed their minds. Perhaps they didn't expect Old Dominion to make the jump. Whatever they thought, things have changed since George Mason decided to stay in the CAA. Because they didn't decide to stay in the CAA. They decided to join what's left of the CAA.
The Horizon, though not the Atlantic 10 or Big East, would be a powerful mid-major conference at those 16 members. Does the conference have the confidence to make a real splash here? We'll see.
Jon Lecrone has said it's all about the student-athletes. I'm not against that idea - it's good PR and it's smart to take care of them by not forcing non-revenue sports on big trips that will make them miss more class time. For instance, a baseball series between Milwaukee and George Mason that would be Friday/Saturday/Sunday would include all-day travel on Thursday to accomplish. But I have a solution to this issue.
Divisions, especially at 16 teams, are a smart way to fix the problems. You don't want to do that in men's basketball, since most teams fly anyways (well, at least Milwaukee does when it's not GB/UIC/LUC/VU), but in a sport like men's soccer, it would be good to split the conference into divisions. So, I would propose creating two eight-team divisions for ONLY non-revenue sports. Since men's basketball is the only revenue sport, this would suffice for all other sports offered by the Horizon League. How about these division ideas?
| Northwest | Southeast |
| Milwaukee | George Mason |
| Green Bay | Drexel |
| UIC | Youngstown State |
| Loyola | Wright State |
| Valparaiso | Murray State |
| Cleveland State | Morehead State |
| Oakland | Belmont |
| Detroit | Robert Morris |
By putting these divisions together, you save non-revenue sports the distance in travel that would really screw things up. Obviously there's still some difference - Drexel to Morehead State is a cool 583 miles - but overall you save schools from having to fly the soccer team or have them spend Thursday on the road.
Remember, what this is all about is getting the Horizon League into the dance as much as possible. A 16-team conference like that may get as many as three at-large bids, possibly four if some of Big DWSU's plans for minimum budgets and scheduling come into play.
In the end, it all comes down to a wait-and-see time for fans of the Horizon League. For the Horizon League office, it's a time when it is kill or be killed. The conference can be content to be a conference that isn't as strong as it was in March, or it can consolidate and make Butler think twice about its comfort in its new home.
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