• A10's moves could affect Milwaukee beyond Butler

    So what's taking so long?

    The Atlantic 10 Conference rumors in adding Butler have been going on just about as long as it's been since Temple announced its departure. It's been a couple weeks since Andy Katz of ESPN submitted his report about Butler's interest in the conference.

    First, we thought an announcement was imminent. Butler wasn't going to wait to jump on the opportunity. They did. Then we expected an announcement once Butler lost in the CBI to Pittsburgh, which is now three days ago. Nothing. My best guess is that the Bulldogs and Atlantic 10 are waiting for the NCAA Tournament to finish, so they can dominate headlines and make huge waves in adding the program.

    But why wait? Probably because the Bulldogs aren't the only team making the move to the A10.

    In an e-mail to the Board of Trustees regarding the firing of Ron Everhart this year, Duquesne President Charles J. Dougherty made mention of "the addition of new high quality university programs" that lends credence to the notion that Butler will not be alone in bolting to the A10.

    So what is the A10's plan? Or rather, who is the A10's next target? Whoever it is, they have been far more quiet in their movements than Butler has been. The "Shadow Addition" of the A10 is likely one team, because that would even out membership. With Temple leaving, the A10 is down to 13. Butler's addition goes to 14, but Charlotte is likely leaving the A10 to join the Sun Belt sometime after next season because they want to be in a conference for all sports and need a home for football beginning in 2013. That drops them back to 13, so you can be certain that Butler will be joined by an odd number of programs in the A10. They will want to stay at an even number of member schools, so expect 1, 3, or 5 additions. Five is out there, and seven would bring it to a round twenty, so don't expect the A10 to go that far.

    This is what we know:

    1. Butler is going to the A10. This much is fact.

    2. They are likely not the only team going, as the Richmond AD and Duquesne President have both made mention of multiple teams.

    3. Richmond has no problem with being in the same conference as VCU, unlike MU-MKE, UD-WSU, UDM-OU.

    4. Charlotte is likely leaving the conference for the Sun Belt, because it's starting football in fall 2013 and wants to be in one conference for all sports. Sun Belt is a geographical fit.

    5. The remaining Horizon League schools all have faults that likely keep them out of the A10. Milwaukee doesn't have the facilities, CSU doesn't have the budget, Valpo is small-town, Detroit's success is fleeting, WSU is in the same town as UD, Loyola has a total lack of success for 25 years, UIC is a mess, YSU is a football school.

    6. VCU would fit the bill of "high quality" mentioned by Duquesne's President.

    7. George Mason is probably the best fit geographically for the conference.

    8. Old Dominion does not fit the A10, because the conference wants to add schools focused on basketball, and ODU has been putting more and more into football since it kicked off in 2009.

    9. No other CAA schools fit the A10. UNCW is on the downslope; William and Mary and James Madison are football schools, as is Delaware. La Salle and St. Joe's would likely block Drexel from joining. Northeastern and Hofstra are cutting programs (both dropped football recently as well as support staff).

    10. Officially the A10 stands at 13 with Temple the official departure. It will be back to 14 when Butler adds, down to 13 when Charlotte departs, so expect Butler to be joined by an odd number of teams if there are other additions - 1, 3, or 5.

    If I were putting together a "wish list" for the A10, I would probably build it like this:

    1. Butler - Already in.

    2. VCU - Basketball success, expenditures, attendance, geography.

    3. George Mason - Mirrors VCU except not quite the same in attendance and recent success.

    4. Creighton - Profile of A10 Jesuit school. Big $, enough for A10 travel. Top 10 national attendance annually. New facility.

    *This is where I think the A10 will likely make its cut-off. Beyond Butler, I think they add VCU -or- VCU, George Mason and Creighton. I don't think another scenario is plausible at this time.

    5. Old Dominion - Football school, but the Monarchs still have great expenditures, attendance and success in basketball.

    6. DePaul - Blue Demons have had very little success in the Big East and could use the drop down to A10, which is comparable to the old C-USA that DU was somewhat successful in. Large basketball budget, premium name. Chicago market, if the A10 chooses to make money from TV deal. May not leave Big East despite cellar-dweller status.

    7. Valparaiso - Geographically fits with BU, SLU, UD and XU. Natural rivalry with BU. Small, private institution. Only show in town. Likely not big enough fan base and recent success for A10 to want.

    8. Bradley - Big attendance. Long and successful history. Only game in town in a significantly larger town than Valpo. Behind VU because of their far geographical location (only SLU/BU is a close trip).

    9. Cleveland State - Recent success in basketball. Owns their own facilities, would benefit from boosted attendance due to competition. Geographically fits. Another midwest city. No teams in the city to hold them back. Lack of financial punch to really be successful in the A10 unless they increase in a hurry.

    10. Milwaukee - Basketball expenditures would fit in A10 better than most HL. Big Ten-sized enrollment and alumni base. Facilities issues are immense and playing behind Marquette keep them behind, but the A10 is behind the Big East, so the latter may not be an issue. Would need to move forward with the arena and practice facility before they'd be a serious option.

    11. Detroit - Big men's basketball expenditures, second only to Butler in HL. Profile of urban Jesuit institution fits A10 well, as does geography. Will want to get the hell out of HL if Oakland joins. Recent success is fleeting due to Ray Sr.-Jr. connection. City on major downturn. Facilities decrepit.

    12. Evansville - Brand new facility. Misfit in MVC. Natural rivalry with Butler, close to XU and UD. Small-town team, don't pull in a ton of fans despite good conference and only-game-in-town status, but decent attendance nonetheless.

    13. Loyola - Brand new facilities. Small, Jesuit institution. Brings in Chicago market if the A10 tries to make money in their television deal. Total lack of success for 20+ years. New arena still "small-time" at 4k. Constantly competing with several schools to be relevant in the city. Very small basketball expenditures, would need to triple at least to come close to A10 relevancy.

    So where does that leave Milwaukee? On the outside looking in, of course. The Panthers just don't have the facilities to compete in the Atlantic 10, and would need to put those plans well in motion (I mean, shovels in the ground) before the A10 would even consider them. Is that sad? Sure is. All the politicking in the world might help, but the fact is that unless the A10 wants to become the A20, we really don't have a shot.

    However, the truth remains that the Panthers could benefit from the A10's expansion. I mentioned that the likeliest of scenarios is that the A10 will add one more school besides Butler, and that would probably be VCU. Adding Butler and VCU and the three Final Fours between them in the last three years is adding tremendous clout to the A10. The fact that Butler and VCU have been able to keep Brad Stevens and Shaka Smart adds to the strength of these additions. VCU occupies the same city as A10 member Richmond, but the two schools occupied the CAA when charter member Richmond allowed VCU's entrance in 1995, and they stayed conference opponents until 2001 when Richmond jumped for the A10.

    If the A10 decides to go to 16, which is a fairly likely scenario, they could jump to grab VCU, George Mason and Creighton. The Patriots were the first mid-major in the modern era to break through back in 2006, and they are a great fit for the conference. Creighton is paramount to adding "Super SLU." Saint Louis is far flung and doesn't have much tourney success in their history, but they're a strong Jesuit institution in a major city and they draw well in attendance. Creighton is farther down the road, they are a strong Jesuit school in a major city, and their attendance would be second to none in the A10 - the Bluejays outdraw even Dayton and Xavier. Add this to the fact that Creighton's got the money for travel, and you can bet that once Butler, VCU and George Mason are in the fold, Creighton is not far behind them. Creighton's basketball budget would be $1.3 million more than the second-highest budget in the A10. That's clout.

    So what happens then? All of a sudden, the CAA is down to ten members and the MVC is down to nine. I see the CAA standing pat; there are no real schools the conference would like to add out east, and they might only find a new team if Georgia State decides to join Charlotte in the Sun Belt (GSU added football in 2010).

    As for the Missouri Valley, nine schools is quite the odd number. Ten would be better. You can expect that a tenth member for the Missouri Valley Conference would be a geographical fit, could match basketball expenditures with the rest of the conference, has decent attendance, and success in basketball.

    So who does the MVC have to draw from? Unlike the A10, who has several conferences it can draw from, the MVC is based in the Great Plains, and doesn't have a lot of direction to go in. The conferences that have teams that would fit geographically and would join the MVC are the Southland, the Summit, the Ohio Valley, and the Horizon League. Every other conference is too far outside the footprint (CAA, etc) or wouldn't join the MVC for competitive or sports reasons (Sun Belt, A10).

    I will go conference by conference and eliminate schools that I feel would not garner an MVC invitation by any means.

    Southland

    Oral Roberts - They don't join until next season, but being based in Tulsa puts them close enough to the MVC for possible inclusion. They also have decent recent basketball success. On the list? Yes.

    Central Arkansas - They would welcome an addition to the MVC, but I don't think the MVC would be interested in them. They are a small public school with a small budget and no basketball success. There's nothing interesting about them. On the list? No.

    Summit

    North Dakota State - They're far north, but the Bison are already in the MVFC (that's football for those who don't know) and are building a basketball arena. If the MVC wants to add multiple teams, NDSU would stand a much higher chance if USD or SDSU is added. On the list? Yes.

    South Dakota State - The Jackrabbits are a geographical fit for the MVC and also play in the MVFC. Their basketball expenses would rank near the bottom of the MVC, but that is likely due to several expenses being reported as part of the football program and not basketball, much like Missouri State and Indiana State. On the list? Yes.

    South Dakota - This school is intriguing. They're a better geographical fit than the Dakota State schools, and like the other two are in the MVFC. They also have a small basketball budget, like SDSU probably due to other expenses being put on football's shoulders. But their basketball team is lacking; they only averaged 1,500 fans last year and are a small public institution (only 10,000 students), so they likely don't have much room to grow in tiny Vermillion, South Dakota. On the list? Yes.

    UMKC - Occupying Kansas City, the Kangaroos have a decent budget ($2.3 million expenses) but probably don't fit the bill. This school has opportunity to grow since it's the only basketball team in Kansas City, but if they're only averaging 1,300 now, I don't think the MVC would be serious. On the list? No.

    Western Illinois - The basketball profile of WIU is very close to that of UMKC, except they don't have any kind of big market to draw fans from. They are in the MVFC, but are likely to stay there only. On the list? No.

    IUPUI and IPFW - These schools average about the same as UMKC and WIU, but what makes it worse is that they are IU-PU schools with very little budgets for basketball or academics. Lack of baseball also hurts. On the list? No.

    Oakland - This school has the basketball profile to jump to the MVC, but they have such a small arena that the Horizon League would have to lower standards to let them in. The MVC is a step up from the Horizon, so Oakland would be moving up two conferences, and then after that you realize they aren't a geographical fit. On the list? No.

    Sun Belt

    UALR - The Trojans have a nice on-campus facility, and are the only non-football school remaining in the Sun Belt once Denver departs for the WAC. However, they are likely to join Oral Roberts in the Southland Conference, so joining the MVC is highly unlikely. On the list? No.

    Ohio Valley

    Eastern Illinois - Like Western Illinois but on the other side of the state. Also lacks the connection of the MVFC and has no success or high budget to draw fans. On the list? No.

    SIU-Edwardsville - The same reason I gave for no inclusion in the Horizon League I'll give here. They're a directional state school who needs to be in D-I for another ten years before they even have a shot. On the list? No.

    Looking down the list at the rest of the OVC, you have a list of schools that don't have the following or the success - SEMO, Tennessee State/Tech/Martin - then you look at Murray State and Morehead State. Are they possibles? Maybe. But the truth is that both schools are small institutions with tiny budgets. They draw well - Morehead gets about 3,000 and Murray 4,000 - compared to others, but they would not be able to compete in the MVC.

    Horizon

    You knew I was getting here. The truth is, the best schools for the MVC are in this conference. I'll go through all ten members, but I'll tell you up front that Detroit, Cleveland State, and Youngstown State are too far geographically.

    Cleveland State - Despite their basketball success and budget, CSU is a misfit. They are a small public school that doesn't draw as well as they should (only college bball team in town) and is outside the geographical footprint of the MVC. It's also a concern that their only success in 25 years has come from a coach who is now 60. They have a better chance of making the A10 than the MVC. On the list? No.

    Detroit - The profile of the school would fit better if Creighton were in the MVC, but the MVC's need for a tenth team in this scenario comes from Creighton's prospective departure to the A10. Detroit's basketball success is more fleeting than CSU's, mainly because it's all based on Ray McCallum Jr. and Eli Holman, two players who fell into Detroit's lap because of their connection to Ray Sr., something he cannot duplicate - Ray Jr. is his son, and he recruited Eli to Indiana. They're also far out of the footprint. On the list? No.

    Green Bay - As far as MVC schools go, the Phoenix SHOULD be an MVC school. The city of Green Bay is so comparable to Peoria, Wichita, Cedar Falls, Springfield, Des Moines. However, the Phoenix just don't have the budget. Their overall athletics budget is last in the Horizon League, and they would be swallowed up if they tried to go into the MVC. They'd also be a geographical misfit unless Milwaukee came along. On the list? No.

    Loyola - The Ramblers are a program that is making strides. They've spent $100 million renovating Gentile Arena and building the Norville Center in addition to a new student union. They have new people - M. Grace Calhoun is the new AD and Porter Moser is a former MVC coach (Illinois State). However, like Green Bay they have a teensy basketball budget that would need to be upgraded in a major way to compete in the MVC. On the list? No.

    UIC - The Flames have been on a downturn because their coach, Howard Moore, took over after several years of Jimmy Collins-caused decay and he only got to do so in August before his first season. For all intents and purposes, this was Moore's first year as coach. The UIC Pavilion is a good arena and they have a somewhat new practice facility, and the MVC could use a school in Chicago. The question around UIC is how quickly can Moore get things turned around, if at all? On the list? Yes.

    Milwaukee - Before you ask, of course I'm putting Milwaukee on the list. It's the biggest school in the Horizon. Enrollment and alumni base, it's comparable to a Big Ten school. The Panthers have a facilities issue that would keep them from competing in the A10, but they could get by in the MVC by just renovating the Klotsche Center's Arena to house a separate basketball practice gym and continuing to play in the Cell, which is comparable to Bradley's Carver Arena. We wouldn't want that, of course, but the point I'm making is that Milwaukee's facilities needs are less so for entrance to the MVC than they are to the A10. Milwaukee's also a geographical fit and would not need to increase their basketball budget to fit into the MVC. On the list? Yup.

    Valpo - The Crusaders are probably one of the higher teams on the list, based on Valpo's MVC profile as a university and program. However, the Northwest Indiana area really doesn't have a major following for the Crusaders, and they failed to sell out the Horizon League Championship game in the 5,000-seat ARC, somewhat an eye-opener considering Milwaukee has sold out every HLT Championship game they've played at the Cell, which is just under 11,000. Valpo is like a super version of WIU and EIU. They've got the basketball success, but the following has a low ceiling and they have older facilities. On the list? Yes.

    Wright State - For all intents and purposes, WSU should be on the list here. They have a great home facility in the Nutter Center, a dynamite practice facility in Setzer Pavilion, and they occupy Dayton, a city that oozes MVC. However, they're not the only show in town (UD). That may be their only real drawback, other than the fact that their only success of the past 15+ years was under Brad Brownell, now departed. On the list? Yes.

    Youngstown State - The one MVFC school in the conference, they already have a connection to the MVC. But where most MVFC schools in the MVC are successful at basketball, the Penguins now boast a sixth place out of 10 in 2012 and fifth place out of nine in 2007 as their best years since coming out of the Mid-Con. With football, their budget matches much of the Horizon League. Without football, they're right at the bottom with Green Bay. On the list? No.

    So what's the list?

    Oral Roberts
    South Dakota
    South Dakota State
    North Dakota State
    Milwaukee
    UIC
    Valpo
    Wright State

    A big reason Oral Roberts moved down was the geographical fit of the Southland. They also will benefit from being the big boys in that conference, which they wouldn't be in the MVC. I think you can scratch them. As far as the Dakota schools are concerned, they really don't have the fan bases to push for inclusion. The only school up there that could get the pull is North Dakota State in Fargo, but at 3,000 fans a year, they really don't have a whole lot of room for expansion.

    Then you're down to the four Horizon League schools. Valpo, like I said, has a low ceiling for fan bases. The demonstrated lack of support in the title game really was an eye-opener to me, since they couldn't get people in NWI to even fill a small arena. I would think the others are ahead of them long term.

    UIC's situation is just a mess. The Flames really were screwed by Jimmy Collins taking the ship down with him. They could right the ship, but considering the crowds at the Pavilion even when they were a top Horizon team in the early parts of the last decade, they probably wouldn't be able to get big crowds unless they gave away several thousand tickets to elementary schools instead of several hundred.

    So that leaves Milwaukee and Wright State. Each has major advantages over the other. The obvious ones for Milwaukee are that we are in a major city, have a high-major enrollment and alumni base, have the victories in the NCAA Tournament, and are a better geographical fit. Academically, Milwaukee's endowment is double that of WSU.

    Wright State, on the other hand, has the best facilities in the Horizon League (once Butler leaves). They have been to the NCAA Tournament more recently, they are sound financially (considering Milwaukee's woes), and Tom Hanks never made a commercial for UWM. Of course, it was a commercial for WSU's arts programs, which are thoroughly whipped by Milwaukee's Peck School of the Arts.

    After that, WSU and Milwaukee both have proven that they can get fans out to see their games, especially the big games. They sell out title games, come out in droves for big games, and each school's basketball expenses are similar.

    So what would I do? I guess it's a push. Each school has its advantages, and honestly, picking between them might be a coin flip for the MVC. Of course, the departure of Creighton may mean that the MVC could stand pat at nine schools. After all, the Horizon League had nine from 2001 to 2007. That seems like a likely scenario, but I had fun playing around with all the possible schools to come up with Milwaukee and Wright State. Perhaps they could be joined by Valpo to make a 12-team Missouri Valley.

    Either way, the moves made by the A10 could have further domino effect on the Horizon League than just Butler's departure from the conference, which is what this was all about.

    Let's just hope Milwaukee is proactive, even in the present "climate."
    Comments 1 Comment
    1. parkerj's Avatar
      parkerj -
      i think Evansville would push to bring us in...if we're in their conference, their players can't transfer here anymore :-p