Controlled advancement

Last night's game was never in doubt. This much is true. But as much of a blowout as it was, it was not a perfect performance. The Milwaukee Panthers need to tighten things up, because if they walk into the ARC in Valparaiso, Indiana on Friday and play like they did Tuesday night, they will most certainly lose to Butler.

While UIC doesn't have the horses to come back from a deficit, the Bulldogs most certainly can and have come back from a double-digit deficit to beat the Panthers this season. Milwaukee held a 40-30 lead with 13:41 left in the game, then gave up the game at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Why did this happen? They stopped taking care of the ball, made costly turnovers, and the Bulldogs made them pay. The Panthers turned the ball over 19 times last night, one more than they did at Hinkle Fieldhouse at the end of 2011.

Of the Milwaukee Panthers fifteen games with at least fifteen turnovers, the Panthers are 8-7; hardly cause for concern. But those seven losses only featured two games where the Panthers shot better than 40% - at Northern Iowa, where UNI made nine threes, and against Detroit, where the turnovers were well above any game in recent memory (25)

When coupled with a scoring drought, the effect is enough to quickly kill a season. The game at Hinkle was well in hand (the aforementioned 40-30 lead), but the Panthers were loose with the ball and didn't shoot well. It's a combination that has showed up in spurts several times this year, including the narrow victory over Northern Illinois and the three minutes of hell in an otherwise even game at Michigan State.

They shot the ball well (outside the eight minutes sandwiching halftime) last night against UIC, but a better team would have turned that 34-6 deficit into a 35-35 tie; the Flames were not quite good enough to make it a game, but you can bet the house that Butler will be.

The Bulldogs, led by Brad Stevens, are getting better every game. They dismantled a Wright State team that wiped the floor with Milwaukee just a couple of weeks ago. Ronald Nored and his fellow Bulldogs, notably Kameron Woods, are kings at taking advantage of small mistakes and turning it into points.

Much has been made about Butler's ballyhooed lack of consistency in shooting. But the Bulldogs do make teams pay for mistakes, and they do it enough to win every year. The personnel has changed, but it's no different. Don't expect them to make mistakes, and expect every single one Milwaukee makes to turn into points for Butler.

The key to this, of course, is Kaylon Williams. Milwaukee is surprisingly 3-1 in his four games with seven turnovers, but the game that sticks out to me is at Detroit. We know how awful the officiating was, but the Horizon League rarely puts out a good crew. The reason Detroit clawed back and won the game was Milwaukee's sloppy play. They didn't take care of the ball, and despite poor shooting, the Titans made a game of it, then made it close, then won.

It was disappointing, but it was a great learning experience. Basically, if the Panthers don't take care of the ball, they will lose. And if Kaylon Williams does take care of the ball, Milwaukee is almost unstoppable.

Some people may take that as a plea to slow the ball down. That's not the point at all. The point is to make smart, crisp passes, be protective of the ball, dribble with assertiveness, and avoid dumb decisions like leaving your feet on a pass or picking up your dribble in a trap.

Milwaukee's season largely revolves around protecting the ball. Take care of the rock, make some shots and advance. Be sloppy, give up the ball frequently, and the Panthers will be eliminated by Butler in the Horizon League Tournament for the third straight year.