Archie Miller re-ups with Dayton through 2022

[TheSultan]

I would give serious thought at expansion right now. More product. More quality schools. IMO it can only help. 10 is great for things like round robin scheduling, but I think the larger a conference is, the more it moves the needle.

[DCwarrior]

I'd only take Dayton if we could sub out DePaul.

[Mucrisco]

I would give serious thought at expansion right now. More product. More quality schools. IMO it can only help. 10 is great for things like round robin scheduling, but I think the larger a conference is, the more it moves the needle.

Agreed! Add Wichita State too. I wish we would have added both schools at the start. The thing about round robin schedules, if your conference is on a down year, you have to play those crappy teams twice.

[IWB]

Dayton, St. Louis, Wichita State - I would be absolutely shocked if the conference expanded with two of these teams and nobody from out East.

[MayorBeluga]

Does a new school add to the pie such that each existing school gets more? If not, there is no need to expand.

[jpvegas52]

I would think Dayton would be a possibility for expansion as would St. Louis, Richmond or maybe even Davidson. Wichita State and VCU would be no goes, profile of those school does not fit with the rest of the conference.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Any expansion needs to likely include one East Coast team for every Midwest team. Georgetown seems to have veto power on VCU, who else is there? Richmond? Rhode Island? Old Dominion? Charlotte? The only viable option seems to be the old chestnut about UConn dropping football. Can't see it.

[Mucrisco]

Does a new school add to the pie such that each existing school gets more? If not, there is no need to expand.

And that's always the one argument that gives me pause to expansion...

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Does a new school add to the pie such that each existing school gets more? If not, there is no need to expand.

If Dayton kept Archie, I think the answer would be yes. Over the past two years, they earned 7 tournament shares. That's a pretty sizable amount. Though if Archie leaves, I'm not sure they sustain that. They'll likely have trouble sustaining it even if he stays, but I do think they would be able to perennially make the tournament with him, and that alone for me would be worth it. It's not just about TV money, but March success that gives a program value.

But it all comes down to who comes with them. If it's Wichita State, fine, do it. But as Jim noted, it would probably have to be an East Coast team, and as I asked, are there any of value? VCU has enough cachet and is a reliable enough bet to make the Dance that I'd say yes. I'm slowly starting to believe Smart might become their Mark Few. But who else on the East Coast is worth it? I'm not sure anyone is.

[MU/Panther]

I've always like Dayton as they draw well and are in the top 10 in the country in TV ratings per city. There fan base is very easy to hate.

[Mucrisco]

If Dayton kept Archie, I think the answer would be yes. Over the past two years, they earned 7 tournament shares. That's a pretty sizable amount. Though if Archie leaves, I'm not sure they sustain that. They'll likely have trouble sustaining it even if he stays, but I do think they would be able to perennially make the tournament with him, and that alone for me would be worth it. It's not just about TV money, but March success that gives a program value.

But it all comes down to who comes with them. If it's Wichita State, fine, do it. But as Jim noted, it would probably have to be an East Coast team, and as I asked, are there any of value? VCU has enough cachet and is a reliable enough bet to make the Dance that I'd say yes. I'm slowly starting to believe Smart might become their Mark Few. But who else on the East Coast is worth it? I'm not sure anyone is.

I personally would add VCU, Davidson, Wichita St, and Dayton. Davidson would be risky though since McKillop is getting up there in age, but he also has a high basketball IQ.

If Archie leaves, Dayton has the fan support and the administrative support for basketball. You throw the Big East into the picture, and I think they could hire a good coach.

As an aside, and I know I am in the large minority of caring about this, but Dayton's women's program is really good too.

[MU/Panther]

Any expansion needs to likely include one East Coast team for every Midwest team. Georgetown seems to have veto power on VCU, who else is there? Richmond? Rhode Island? Old Dominion? Charlotte? The only viable option seems to be the old chestnut about UConn dropping football. Can't see it.
Don't forget ODU and Charlotte are in Conf. USA as FBS football members.

[MU/Panther]

Good read from "Frank the Tank"
http://frankthetank.me/2015/03/25/uptown-dunk-basketball-conference-realignment-and-the-big-east-wichita-state-uab-mvc-and-down-the-line/
Wichita State is basically the Boise State of basketball. Fans like them, university presidents look down on them.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Had no idea they had FBS football. All the more reason expansion will be difficult. Just not that many good non-football, East Coast basketball schools.

[IWB]

No it does not add more to the pie.

Look at it right now, based off of this year.

TV Revenue
Right now the Fox TV contract is 12 years, $500 million. That breaks out to $4.16 million per school, per year.
If they expand to 12, contract moves to 12 years, $600 million. That breaks out to $4.16 million per school, per year.

That is a wash.

NCAA Tourney Credits
So far this year the Big East has earned 11 credits. That is $2,809,169 - which is $280,916 per school.
Add 2 teams and Dayton's 3 credits, now 14 credits. That is $3,575,306 - which is $297,942 per school.

TV wise - That is an additional $17,026 per school. Not a big deal when it comes to the big picture, but certainly adding to the pie.

However, if Xavier beats Arizona, that is another credit. If the $255,379 credit is split by 10, each school gets $25,537. If by 12 then $21,281. Again, not huge, but every credit earned is $4,256 less per school.

Overall the expansion is the same for TV, but for NCAA tourney credits, each school is losing $4,256 per credit, so you have to ensure that the new teams coming would need to make that up in tourney credits each and every year.

[MU/Panther]

If they expand to 12, contract moves to 12 years, $600 million. That breaks out to $4.16 million per school, per year.

I heard of that in 2012, does that deal still hold true today by FOX?

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Didn't Dayton earn 3 credits? I was under the impression the First Four games still count.

[Goose85]

No it does not add more to the pie.

Look at it right now, based off of this year.

TV Revenue
Right now the Fox TV contract is 12 years, $500 million. That breaks out to $4.16 million per school, per year.
If they expand to 12, contract moves to 12 years, $600 million. That breaks out to $4.16 million per school, per year.

That is a wash.


Is that built into the TV deal, or would Fox decide the bump based on the teams added?

[IWB]

MU/Panther - yes, those are the numbers I went off of, and I am not sure that has changed.

Alan - You are correct and I have adjusted.

Goose85 - When the contract was signed the reports said the deal was 12 years, $500 million, but that the number "Could grow to $600 million if they expanded to 12 teams".

[MUMac]

I have been in the minority here, opposing Wichita State, so I have kept quiet on the topic. I agree with the Presidents. I do not see the fit at all. Having lived in Wichita for several years, the people are fantastic. Great fans. They do support their team. I just do not see the fit with the university or with the other programs. Basketball has been more cold than hot over the years, as well.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

One thing about this extension...is it an extension to keep Miller there, or to raise the price when he inevitably leaves? I don't see him staying at Dayton for the long run, at least as long as they are in the A-10. As we know all too well, signing a new extension is never a guarantee a guy will stick around.

[Goose85]

At this point I like staying at 10. Who knows what happens to football conferences in 10 years.
Will schools like Texas get tired of making the same money as Iowa State / Kansas and go independent for football? Will other schools, like UConn, think they can make more money as an independent for football while playing all other sports in the Big East?

Will tv be as lucrative in 10 years as it is now? Who knows how we will be watching games in 10 years.
Seemed just a couple years ago I used my cell phone to make phone calls, my tv to watch games, and my computer to look up information on the web.

If you add Dayton and Richmond / Davidson to the Big East, does that make the Big East that much better a conference from a national perception improve?
Then what if in 5 years UConn wants in? Do we go to 13 teams, 14 teams, or more?

Unless it is an obvious no brainer of an add, I say stay at 10. I like knowing Georgetown, St. John's, Villanova, etc will be coming to Milwaukee every year.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

At this point I like staying at 10. Who knows what happens to football conferences in 10 years.
Will schools like Texas get tired of making the same money as Iowa State / Kansas and go independent for football? Will other schools, like UConn, think they can make more money as an independent for football while playing all other sports in the Big East?

Will tv be as lucrative in 10 years as it is now? Who knows how we will be watching games in 10 years.
Seemed just a couple years ago I used my cell phone to make phone calls, my tv to watch games, and my computer to look up information on the web.

If you add Dayton and Richmond / Davidson to the Big East, does that make the Big East that much better a conference from a national perception improve?
Then what if in 5 years UConn wants in? Do we go to 13 teams, 14 teams, or more?

Unless it is an obvious no brainer of an add, I say stay at 10. I like knowing Georgetown, St. John's, Villanova, etc will be coming to Milwaukee every year.

Well said and I agree completely.

[TheSultan]

At this point I like staying at 10. Who knows what happens to football conferences in 10 years.
Will schools like Texas get tired of making the same money as Iowa State / Kansas and go independent for football? Will other schools, like UConn, think they can make more money as an independent for football while playing all other sports in the Big East?

Will tv be as lucrative in 10 years as it is now? Who knows how we will be watching games in 10 years.
Seemed just a couple years ago I used my cell phone to make phone calls, my tv to watch games, and my computer to look up information on the web.

If you add Dayton and Richmond / Davidson to the Big East, does that make the Big East that much better a conference from a national perception improve?
Then what if in 5 years UConn wants in? Do we go to 13 teams, 14 teams, or more?

Unless it is an obvious no brainer of an add, I say stay at 10. I like knowing Georgetown, St. John's, Villanova, etc will be coming to Milwaukee every year.


I think it is a losing proposition to try to predict the future. Who knows if UConn drops football five or ten years from now. But are you really going to hold open a space just in case?

If IWB is correct and the BE can add two teams without effecting the per school value of the television contract, I think expansion should happen ASAP. If not, obviously that's a problem. But it still should be something worth exploring. Getting good schools into the conference is a good idea.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Scheduling with 12 would be interesting. Do you simply go with an unbalanced schedule, or try to do divisions? If you do two divisions of 6, do you do home and home in division and play the other division once each? It works great from a schedule perspective, but only 16 games per team. That would take the total number of games from 90 to 96, not a big addition. If you go unbalanced, you get 108 games. My guess is Fox would want the 18 game schedule regardless.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

I think it is a losing proposition to try to predict the future. Who knows if UConn drops football five or ten years from now. But are you really going to hold open a space just in case?

If IWB is correct and the BE can add two teams without effecting the per school value of the television contract, I think expansion should happen ASAP. If not, obviously that's a problem. But it still should be something worth exploring. Getting good schools into the conference is a good idea.

I don't think you meant it this way, but it kind of comes off as "since it won't negatively impact the conference's revenue stream let's add teams for the sake of adding teams." I get that it would possibly add a little additional revenue with more chances for tourney credits, more eyeballs, etc. But would the Big East brand really be helped by adding any of the previously mentioned teams (Dayton, SLU, Davidson)? My answer is maybe for Dayton and no for the others. And like Goose said, until that "maybe" is turned into a definite yes, why make the move?

[Goose85]

I really don't see any one school or two schools being a must add, or any kind of consensus even on this board.
Some like Dayton, SLU, Davidson, Richmond, Wichita, etc. Need one east and one west. Now think that all 9 schools must agree. Very tough.

If there was one school that everyone wanted to bring on, like a UConn, I could see going with just 11 schools and still playing a round robin.

Does anyone know the actual length of the TV deal? I know 12 years, but is there a point where either party (Big East or Fox) can pull out or call for a renegotiation?

[TheSultan]

I don't think you meant it this way, but it kind of comes off as "since it won't negatively impact the conference's revenue stream let's add teams for the sake of adding teams." I get that it would possibly add a little additional revenue with more chances for tourney credits, more eyeballs, etc. But would the Big East brand really be helped by adding any of the previously mentioned teams (Dayton, SLU, Davidson)? My answer is maybe for Dayton and no for the others. And like Goose said, until that "maybe" is turned into a definite yes, why make the move?


Because I have come to a conclusion about conferences and perceptions. People care more about what's at the top of a conference than what's at the bottom, so I think adding teams without subtracting from per school revenue makes a great deal of sense. Even that means adding a team like Richmond, if it means getting a team like Dayton.

[milwaukeejedi1]

If you want to compare the prospective school's bball budgets.... http://www.bbstate.com/info/teams-hoopsbudget

[Goose85]

Because I have come to a conclusion about conferences and perceptions. People care more about what's at the top of a conference than what's at the bottom, so I think adding teams without subtracting from per school revenue makes a great deal of sense. Even that means adding a team like Richmond, if it means getting a team like Dayton.

I guess we can just agree to disagree, but I really don't see that Dayton would enhance the national perception of the conference, or add to the prestige of the conference at the top.

In the past 10 years Dayton has made the NCAA tourney 3 times, and this year they were last four in and won a play in game in their own gym to make the first weekend. In the last 20 years they have been in the tourney 6 times. I think making the tourney 3 out of 10 years translates to getting more in tourney credits than they earn from the conference.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I guess we can just agree to disagree, but I really don't see that Dayton would enhance the national perception of the conference, or add to the prestige of the conference at the top.
In the past 10 years Dayton has made the NCAA tourney 3 times, and this year they were last four in and won a play in game in their own gym to make the first weekend.

Dayton is great from a philosophical fit. Similar school in terms of religion, they invest in basketball, fervent fanbase, they may not be a major market, but DePaul has a major market and they suck.

I think Dayton is a great fit as a 12th team. Absolutely ideal in that they mesh well with the rest of the league and currently are performing at a high level. But I wouldn't bring Dayton in just for Dayton. If we did add UConn or VCU, I would say get Dayton as #12. If we found that ideal East Coast school that was a must-add, Dayton would be a great choice to be the Midwest school to balance that out. But bringing them in just because they're Dayton? That's not good enough for me.

[DCwarrior]

I really don't see any one school or two schools being a must add, or any kind of consensus even on this board.
Some like Dayton, SLU, Davidson, Richmond, Wichita, etc. Need one east and one west. Now think that all 9 schools must agree. Very tough.

If there was one school that everyone wanted to bring on, like a UConn, I could see going with just 11 schools and still playing a round robin.

Does anyone know the actual length of the TV deal? I know 12 years, but is there a point where either party (Big East or Fox) can pull out or call for a renegotiation?

I mostly agree. There are only 3 schools out there that could conceivably do both - add viewers to the FS1 numbers and enhance the conference's basketball reputation -- UCONN, Gonzaga and Notre Dame. Unfortunately, I don't see UCONN dropping football any time soon; Gonzaga can't work unless it's for basketball only and no other conference would take their other sports without hoops; Notre Dame belongs in our conference but as long as football drives the bus in college sports, they're staying put. Any of these three want to join and we go to 11 and keep the round robin format.

I don't see how any adding any of the other mentioned schools (in spite of Witchita State and Dayton's recent success) would add value to the conference.

[MU/Panther]

The chance of UConn dropping football is the same as Marquette dropping basketball.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Stop with this UConn. It has football.

Okay...we all know this. Seriously, we all know this. I made a joke about it earlier in this thread. But the reason UConn is always used as an example is twofold: first, they have a long history with the Big East and thus make sense, and second, they are a perennial power and would be a no-brainer in terms of the pedigree of program if you could get them in.

We all know they have football. We all know that the league doesn't want programs with football. We all know that UConn isn't viable. They are used as an example, nothing more, nothing less.

[MU/Panther]

Okay...we all know this. Seriously, we all know this. I made a joke about it earlier in this thread. But the reason UConn is always used as an example is twofold: first, they have a long history with the Big East and thus make sense, and second, they are a perennial power and would be a no-brainer in terms of the pedigree of program if you could get them in.

We all know they have football. We all know that the league doesn't want programs with football. We all know that UConn isn't viable. They are used as an example, nothing more, nothing less.
I know, but it's sound like a guy wanting to get back with his x-girlfriend when she left her boyfriend for another girl. :cool:;)

[MayorBeluga]

I know, but it's sound like a guy wanting to get back with his x-girlfriend when she left her boyfriend for another girl. :cool:;)

Oh great. Now you're giving Caribou some impure thoughts during Lent.

[MU88]

Dayton adds nothing. Why go beyond 10? The coaches don't like playing two opponents only once. You won't get more teams in the tourney. The school does not add prestige to the conference. The school will not help you the next time you have to renegotiate the tv contract. Why would you add them? Did you notice that the top two RPI conferences (Big East and the Big 12) has 10 teams each. Less garbage at the bottom leads to higher RPI. I can't think of a single good reason to add Dayton.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I know, but it's sound like a guy wanting to get back with his x-girlfriend when she left her boyfriend for another girl. :cool:;)

I'll try to remember to use Duke as an example going forward ;)

[TheSultan]

Dayton adds nothing. Why go beyond 10? The coaches don't like playing two opponents only once. You won't get more teams in the tourney. The school does not add prestige to the conference. The school will not help you the next time you have to renegotiate the tv contract. Why would you add them? Did you notice that the top two RPI conferences (Big East and the Big 12) has 10 teams each. Less garbage at the bottom leads to higher RPI. I can't think of a single good reason to add Dayton.


Because conference RPI is irrelevant, I don't care what the coaches opinions are, and getting good schools in the conference is a good thing.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Because conference RPI is irrelevant, I don't care what the coaches opinions are, and getting good schools in the conference is a good thing.

To tie into another discussion, THIS is why I want Lavin gone from St John's. The guy sucks in March. Since arriving at St John's, he has 1 Big East Tourney win. That's on his home court! Also has a 5-game losing streak in the BET. Zero NCAA wins, one NIT win.

Having a good RPI is nice for seeding and bids, but when push comes to shove, I would rather have guys that win. Lavin doesn't do that and hasn't since he left Westwood.

[Goose85]

To tie into another discussion, THIS is why I want Lavin gone from St John's. The guy sucks in March. Since arriving at St John's, he has 1 Big East Tourney win. That's on his home court! Also has a 5-game losing streak in the BET. Zero NCAA wins, one NIT win.

Having a good RPI is nice for seeding and bids, but when push comes to shove, I would rather have guys that win. Lavin doesn't do that and hasn't since he left Westwood.

I think St. John's could do really well with an east coast guy, like Hurley (either one).

Lavin made the tourney this year, but on the season there is not a single guy from the state of NY that averaged 1 point or more per game.
The only east coast guy that contributes at least 1 point per game is Jordan, and he's from Philly.

Thus far for 2015 St. John's has one top 100 recruit, and the kid is from Louisiana.

I'm not saying you need east coast kids to win at St. John's, or that the east coast produces a lot of talent, but I just find it odd that St. John's doesn't have more east coast kids.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

Sultan - you keep saying getting good schools into the conference is a good thing and it will move the needle. We get that and we obviously all agree. What you have yet to drive home is why Dayton is a good school that will move the needle?

[unclejohn]

I am strongly of the opinion that there will be no state schools and certainly no football schools. Stranger things have happened, but I do not see VCU, Wichita State, or anybody else. Butler can fit in with all the Catholics, but I do think the Catholic identity helps. Not only do they presumably have the same values, but some of the administrators know each other. Currently, the conference is made up of relatively small private institutions. They have similar objectives and challenges. That is different from having to fight with the state legislature over funding.

As far as where the schools come from, I am not as convinced that they have to come from the east coast. Maybe, but take a look at where the new members came from. Creighton was a surprise and an outlier, and at least in part a result of Jebbie politicking. But Xavier essentially replaced Cincinnati and Butler essentially replaced Notre Dame. I understand that the eastern schools would like to see more of the same, but the conference has been moving gradually west since they added Notre Dame. There just are not a lot of candidates on the east coast. I do not know how Xavier feels about Dayton. I ave always thought expansion was a matter of Saint Louis and....

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I think in the eyes of Georgetown, Villanova, and the rest of the teams on the East Coast, any expansion would have to include an East Coast team. Right now it's 5 EC and 5 Midwest schools. For some reason, having a team out there is important to them.

[Nukem2]

I think in the eyes of Georgetown, Villanova, and the rest of the teams on the East Coast, any expansion would have to include an East Coast team. Right now it's 5 EC and 5 Midwest schools. For some reason, having a team out there is important to them.
Well, the name is Big EAST...... :)

[ValiantSailor]

Well, the name is Big EAST...... :)

Sort of like BIG TEN...or BIG TWELVE...or PAC TWELVE...?

VS

[TheSultan]

Sort of like BIG TEN...or BIG TWELVE...or PAC TWELVE...?

VS


Pac 12 is accurate.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Well, the name is Big EAST...... :)

Heard that same thing from a Boston native the other day who was bitching about our conference ;)

I pointed out the 14 schools in the Big 10, the 10 schools in the Big 12, and the presence of schools like Syracuse, Louisville, and Notre Dame in the ATLANTIC COAST Conference :D

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Pac 12 is accurate.

Marginally...Boulder, CO is what, 800 miles from the Pacific Ocean?

[TheSultan]

Marginally...Boulder, CO is what, 800 miles from the Pacific Ocean?

Oh...ha...yeah. I was going by the number!

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

True...they can at least count :D

[MinnesotaJeb]

Well, the name is Big EAST...... :)

I think it's also a cultural thing as well with them, a continuity with the BE tradition, justifying, for example the moral claim on Madison Square Garden as our tournament home.

Neither do I see any sense at this time at expansion. Some member teams need to get a bit more settled. Besides DePaul, Creighton needs to show it can compete regularly with the best in the conference. St. John's and SH needs good coaches secured, recruiting regularly at a high level, etc. The new BE is still very young and still in short pants. Let's build on our beginnings and not be over hasty, biting off more than we can chew.

[unclejohn]

I think it's also a cultural thing as well with them, a continuity with the BE tradition, justifying, for example the moral claim on Madison Square Garden as our tournament home.

Neither do I see any sense at this time at expansion. Some member teams need to get a bit more settled. Besides DePaul, Creighton needs to show it can compete regularly with the best in the conference. St. John's and SH needs good coaches secured, recruiting regularly at a high level, etc. The new BE is still very young and still in short pants. Let's build on our beginnings and not be over hasty, biting off more than we can chew.

No, I think you are right about expansion. No need to do it now, and Ackerman has said in the past that the conference is happy where it is. There is no absolute need to expand. I think it will take until there are two candidates that everyone can agree on. I just do not see who the conference can get from the East. There are just not that many unattached eastern teams that jump out at you.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

No, I think you are right about expansion. No need to do it now, and Ackerman has said in the past that the conference is happy where it is. There is no absolute need to expand. I think it will take until there are two candidates that everyone can agree on. I just do not see who the conference can get from the East. There are just not that many unattached eastern teams that jump out at you.

This is exactly why I don't see expansion coming soon. UConn is the only school everyone would agree on, but their football is a deal-breaker. How often did they try to leverage their way out of the old league? We don't need that again. Georgetown doesn't want VCU, Richmond I just don't think is at that level, and no one else is really compelling.