Outlook

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I know I'll be heavily criticized for this opinion, however I just don't feel this is an NCAA tournament team. I know many will point to the progression of teams in previous years and say everything will be alright, and I hope that's true, however I really think this is the year we miss the tournament. We just don't have the backcourt talent to be a good team this year, and frankly I don't think they have the same potential as last years team to develop. Mayo cannot be counted on, Wilson can't shoot and is average athletically, Thomas is about as good as you can hope for from a former walk on, JaJuan has shown flashes but is still a freshman. I think Dawson will be good with some experience but just isn't ready yet. Our issue is that our players with real talent and potential in the back court are young and inexperienced, our experienced guys on the inside can't be as effective because defenses can just pack it in on them. I think it's going to be a long year.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I felt the same way in 2009-10. Barring complete collapse, I'm not willing to count one of Buzz's teams out until we see them floundering in February. Three of four losses away from home to likely tourney teams, and the other to a top-10 team that has yet to lose a game. There's a lot of basketball to be played. Each game we see different flashes. Sometimes it's Derrick showing he can drive and be assertive, sometimes it's Jamil showing what he can do when he takes over a game, sometimes it's the freshmen showing what they can contribute when given a chance. We need to see all of those things at the same time. If we do, this team will win and can still win a lot. If not, it'll be a long season.

[AbovetheRim]

Even if we make the tourney, Buzz himself has said numerous times that the tournament is all about guard play. Is anyone confident in how Derrick and Jake would line about against virtually anyone in the field? I'll never quit on this team, however, I just wonder if making our most talented players "earn" it hurts us this year in the long run. Did DJ, Jerel, or Wes "earn" it from the jump?

[kneelb4zerg]

Even if we make the tourney, Buzz himself has said numerous times that the tournament is all about guard play. Is anyone confident in how Derrick and Jake would line about against virtually anyone in the field? I'll never quit on this team, however, I just wonder if making our most talented players "earn" it hurts us this year in the long run. Did DJ, Jerel, or Wes "earn" it from the jump?

That was Crean. He did things differently. But I would tend to think they did.

And for this team to be successful we need Mayo and/or JJJ to emerge. Everybody knows that. Thomas should be the role player. And I am plenty confident in how Wilson stacks up against anybody.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Even if we make the tourney, Buzz himself has said numerous times that the tournament is all about guard play. Is anyone confident in how Derrick and Jake would line about against virtually anyone in the field? I'll never quit on this team, however, I just wonder if making our most talented players "earn" it hurts us this year in the long run. Did DJ, Jerel, or Wes "earn" it from the jump?

I'm confident in Derrick. I know he takes a lot of flack, but he's shown he can drive, make the smart pass, and not turn the ball over. He's never going to evoke memories of Diener or James, but I honestly think he could end up being a better point guard for us than Cadougan was. While Junior had some incredibly good moments, how much did we fear Bad Junior showing up, especially against high-pressure teams like Louisville? I don't have the same fear with Derrick out there.

I don't have confidence in Jake, however. His play has convinced me he can be a useful player, and honestly probably give us a good 15-20 minutes when needed. He understands the defensive system and can hit a shot from time to time when he's open. But he's not a 25-30 minute guy at this level. I really hope Mayo gets his stuff together because we need him if we're going to succeed. JJJ and Jake off the bench would be fine.

I could see a Derrick/Todd backcourt being solid, with the possibility of being very good next year. That said, I'm not sure they'll both be here next year...but we've been saying that about Mayo for quite awhile now, so maybe he'll make it through his college career.

[warriorfan4life]

Derrick Wilson is the exact type of PG this team needs, but we need a productive Mayo next to him (and almost all of my optimism centers around that). A year from now, a healthy Duane Wilson could be better suited to run a likely much faster paced team, but Derrick Wilson will be our big minute PG this year. Buzz will replace Jake in the starting line-up if and when Mayo stays healthy and focused.

[AlexJesswein]

We are in serious danger of not making the tournament. Reality is--the Big East is not what it used to be and the opportunity for quality wins, let alone signature wins just won't be there like they were in the past. Just looking at teams that missed the tourney last year:
--Tennessee had 9 top-100 wins (3 over NCAA teams) and missed the dance
--Virginia had 8 top-100 wins (4 over NCAA teams) and missed
--Kentucky had 7 top-100 wins (3 over NCAA teams) and missed

Looking at how things are projecting at this point, MU has their work cut out for them. Based on RPI Forecast we are projected for 7 top-100 wins with 4 of them being in the back half of the top 100.

[kneelb4zerg]

Nobody doubts we have our work cut out for us. Have to start getting quality wins. Season won't be defined by what happened in November/December though.

[warriorfan4life]

We are in serious danger of not making the tournament. Reality is--the Big East is not what it used to be and the opportunity for quality wins, let alone signature wins just won't be there like they were in the past. Just looking at teams that missed the tourney last year:
--Tennessee had 9 top-100 wins (3 over NCAA teams) and missed the dance
--Virginia had 8 top-100 wins (4 over NCAA teams) and missed
--Kentucky had 7 top-100 wins (3 over NCAA teams) and missed

Looking at how things are projecting at this point, MU has their work cut out for them. Based on RPI Forecast we are projected for 7 top-100 wins with 4 of them being in the back half of the top 100.

All three of those teams all had bad losses, and the SEC was garbage outside of Florida last year. The Big East as a conference still ranks third overall in Conference RPI, which translates to at least four bids (I think anywhere from 4-6 depending on how teams like Xavier, Butler and St. John's do in December, and if Dunn can get semi-healthy for Providence). If we can beat New Mexico (and I like our chances if everyone is heathy and present), then we actually have a decent non-conference profile with two solid wins and no bad losses.

[AlexJesswein]

Nobody doubts we have our work cut out for us. Have to start getting quality wins. Season won't be defined by what happened in November/December though.

Where will we get them though? I don't think reality of the new Big East has set in on this board.

[warriorfan4life]

Where will we get them though? I don't think reality of the new Big East has set in on this board.

Again, third in Conference RPI. And while the mantra is teams earn bids, not conferences, there is normally a fairly close distribution to conference rank and bids received.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Down to 4th in RPI. There is time for us to pick up good wins and make the tournament, but I get the feeling a high seed could be slipping away.

[warriorfan4life]

Still third according to Palm's update:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference

For the record, I still hate the RPI with all my being, but it has relied on for selection and seeding as much as ever these past few years. For actual conference quality, the Big East is still fourth in the Pomeroys, just a shade behind the Big 12. We did not suddenly go the Horizon League, as the Big East is still a power conference.

[MUMac]

One thing to consider, how does the Committee treat the loss of Mayo in two losses and Taylor in one? If they both come back and start to play strong, help turn MU around, how will that be treated?

I still have faith in this team and believe they will turn it around. Two losses to top 10 teams (one on the road) and another road loss early in the season are overcomeable (is that a word?). If MU finishes top 4 in the conference, I believe they will go.

[Djgoldnboy]

One thing to consider, how does the Committee treat the loss of Mayo in two losses and Taylor in one? If they both come back and start to play strong, help turn MU around, how will that be treated?

I still have faith in this team and believe they will turn it around. Two losses to top 10 teams (one on the road) and another road loss early in the season are overcomeable (is that a word?). If MU finishes top 4 in the conference, I believe they will go.

In all honesty, they probably will not even realize who was in or out with our losses......too many teams to keep track of who was actually on the court when X beat Y.....just like they'll prob not remember the Rodents beat a half staffed Florida team.

[warriorfan4life]

In all honesty, they probably will not even realize who was in or out with our losses......too many teams to keep track of who was actually on the court when X beat Y.....just like they'll prob not remember the Rodents beat a half staffed Florida team.

Actually not true. Teams are primarily judged by how they perform as the unit that is entering the NCAA tournament. If Marquette performs much better with Todd Mayo in the lineup, it will be noted and discussed in the committee room (same as if Duane Wilson provides an unexpected boost). Wins against teams missing key players are not discredited, unless there is a razor tight competition between 2 teams for 1 spot during the process.

[Djgoldnboy]

Actually not true. Teams are primarily judged by how they perform as the unit that is entering the NCAA tournament. If Marquette performs much better with Todd Mayo in the lineup, it will be noted and discussed in the committee room (same as if Duane Wilson provides an unexpected boost). Wins against teams missing key players are not discredited, unless there is a razor tight competition between 2 teams for 1 spot during the process.

Overall I agree, but TM is part of our line up anyway already, starter or not. (And with Buzz system, starters are not really that important anyway), all I'm saying is that come March, the committee will not have a clue to if Todd played vs Wisconsin or not.

[MUMac]

Overall I agree, but TM is part of our line up anyway already, starter or not. (And with Buzz system, starters are not really that important anyway), all I'm saying is that come March, the committee will not have a clue to if Todd played vs Wisconsin or not.

Pretty sure they do factor those things in.

[warriorfan4life]

Overall I agree, but TM is part of our line up anyway already, starter or not. (And with Buzz system, starters are not really that important anyway), all I'm saying is that come March, the committee will not have a clue to if Todd played vs Wisconsin or not.

They absolutely will, as each committee member is in charge of focusing on 3-4 conferences and being alert to when key players miss games amongst teams in the discussion. Now, there is generally more sympathy towards games missed with injury versus games missed due to suspension, but his absence in the ASU and Bucky games will be noted.

[Markedman]

It will be noted but most likely have no impact...From what I have read about the selection/seeding process they have moved teams down when players get hurt but not sure Mayo is good enough that his absence will help us much if at all.

Most obvious example is Kenyon Martin who was college player of the year and his injury at the end of the year clearly hurt Cincy in seeding. It hurt them because they had proven to be great with him....we have not proven to be all that good even with Todd.

If we are playing well at the end of the year and are resume is good enough we will get in...if not Mayo being out for a couple of our losses in Nov/Dec isn't going to put us over the top.

[AlexJesswein]

The Big East at this point has 5 wins over Kenpom top-50 teams. Still some good opportunities out there but a lot left to be desired:

8-Kansas
13-Iowa
32-VCU
34-Tennessee
47-Arizona State