Season previews

[IrwinFletcher]

ESPN weighs in with their picks

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/27792429/villanova-field

[IrwinFletcher]

CBS Sports

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/big-east-expert-picks-2019-20-preview-villanova-will-have-to-fend-off-challenges-from-seton-hall-and-xavier/

[IrwinFletcher]

Anonymous Eagle

https://twitter.com/anonymouseagle/status/1181215123870011392?s=21

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Thanks for compiling these. So far, I think people are vastly overrating Seton Hall and underrating Marquette. Losing Joey is like losing Rowsey. The defensive gains will outweigh the offensive loss. Marquette's defense stands to be very good.

[Nukem2]

Thanks for compiling these. So far, I think people are vastly overrating Seton Hall and underrating Marquette. Losing Joey is like losing Rowsey. The defensive gains will outweigh the offensive loss. Marquette's defense stands to be very good.

The thing with Joey (and Sam) though, is the rebounding. Not sure we can make up for all those boards that Joey and Sam garnered. Jayce will get some offensive boards. But, Joey and Sam were darn good on the defensive boards. Theo and Ed were not great rebounders for 5s.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Don't underestimate Koby McEwen's rebounding. He's an incredible rebounder, especially from the back court.

[IrwinFletcher]

Don't underestimate Koby McEwen's rebounding. He's an incredible rebounder, especially from the back court.

What is interesting, statistically speaking, is the rebounding that Makus does. Last year, he had 8 games where he garnered 6 or more rebounds and another 5 games where he had 5 rebounds. That is quite a bit of production on the boards from the smallest guy on the court.

[MU Viking]

CollegeSportsMadness (they are the site that ranks the top 144 teams) has us at #27 overall, #4 in the Big East, and a 7 seed in the Tournament.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17874

[Marquette]

Anonymous Eagle

https://twitter.com/anonymouseagle/status/1181215123870011392?s=21

Does anyone really think the staff picks from Anonymous Eagle are worthy of being mentioned in the same category as the staff picks form ESPN and CBS Sports?

[warriorfan4life]

Does anyone really think the staff picks from Anonymous Eagle are worthy of being mentioned in the same category as the staff picks form ESPN and CBS Sports?

Not necessarily those guys, but guys like Alan (brewcity77) and Ryan Jackson (TAMU Eagle on Scoop) definitely belong in that conversation with their efforts, as they put a lot of time and research into their work.

[Markedman]

If we play Ed significant minutes at the 4 I have little doubt that he will rebound as good or better then Joey did there.

Last year Ed was an excellent offensive rebounder and a decent defensive rebounder. He was better then Joey in both areas.......now I realize that those numbers may change if he is playing the 4 but Joey was not a great rebounder last season .....especially on the offensive glass where his numbers were poor.

Sam from the 3 spot was very good on the defensive end but like Joey got very few offensive rebounds on a percentage basis.

I would expect our offensive rebounding to be improved this season.......not as sure about the defensive rebounding but I think we will be ok there with Koby now playing significant minutes in the backcourt.

It would help if Sacar increased his numbers although part of his poor numbers may have been scheme related......if he is covering top offensive perimeter threat he is away from the basket most of the time and engaged with his man most possessions.......on offense he seemed to be one of the get back guys when he wasn't attacking.

[Nukem2]

If we play Ed significant minutes at the 4 I have little doubt that he will rebound as good or better then Joey did there.

Last year Ed was an excellent offensive rebounder and a decent defensive rebounder. He was better then Joey in both areas.......now I realize that those numbers may change if he is playing the 4 but Joey was not a great rebounder last season .....especially on the offensive glass where his numbers were poor.

Sam from the 3 spot was very good on the defensive end but like Joey got very few offensive rebounds on a percentage basis.

I would expect our offensive rebounding to be improved this season.......not as sure about the defensive rebounding but I think we will be ok there with Koby now playing significant minutes in the backcourt.

It would help if Sacar increased his numbers although part of his poor numbers may have been scheme related......if he is covering top offensive perimeter threat he is away from the basket most of the time and engaged with his man most possessions.......on offense he seemed to be one of the get back guys when he wasn't attacking.
Joey averaged 5.3 rpg last season. He was more than ok on the defensive boards.

[Markedman]

Rebounding percentage is what's important......Joey was poor on offensive rebounds.....3.6%......Bailey was 6.5% for comparison sake.......Ed was 15%.

Joey's defensive rebound percentage was 15.9......about the same as Ed had on the offensive boards. 4 other MU players had about the same or higher def reb percentage as Joey.

He was decent.....JJ had a similar defensive percentage(15.4) as a senior as Joey did last season.

[MU_Iceman]

Let's not forget about Jayce here...% wise, he will be the best rebounder on the team by a substantial margin. Jayce's 27.5% Defensive rebounding rate was 23rd in the country last year. He also had a very good offensive rebound % of 14.1 which was 27th in the country. For comparison's sake he would have been the 3rd best Offensive rebounder in the BE last year and the top defensive rebounder(by a substantial margin). He is the ultimate glass cleaner.

[CaribouJim]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/nba-draft-prospect-rankings-evaluating-the-top-seven-players-in-the-big-east-who-could-be-drafted-in-june/

[AlexJesswein]

17th in Kenpom

https://kenpom.com/index.php

[Markedman]

Big East 2nd in conference ratings

https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=BE

[warriorfan4life]

17th in Kenpom

https://kenpom.com/index.php

I can kind of understand how Memphis is 50th, but I feel like even if the wheels fell for them, there is no way they finish that low. They have top 10 talent and Penny seems to be pretty competent as a coach (he overachieved last year winning 22 games and finishing 56th in the Pomeroy rankings).

Back to Marquette, I would sign up now to finish 17th in the postseason. It would be a 15 spot improvement over Wojo's best career finish in the Pomeroy rankings and a top 5 finish historically during the Kenpom era.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Pomeroy's stats primarily come from evaluating the Four Factors. Here's why I think his model predicts a big offensive improvement:

eFG%: Sam was great, Joey was solid. But newcomer Jayce Johnson had a higher eFG% than Sam last year and Koby & Greg had higher eFG% than Joey did in their best seasons. Assuming improvement from the rest of the returning roster, eFG% should largely remain static even if 3PFG% declines a bit.

Turnover Rate: Joey was really bad, Sam was pretty good but not as good as he had been. With more ballhandlers and Markus' history of generally having a lower TO Rate when his usage was lower, this should improve.

Offensive Rebounding: For forwards, the Hausers were really bad offensive rebounders. Jayce, Morrow, and Cain are all excellent offensive rebounders and Bailey is better than either Hauser by far. We will be a much, much, much better offensive rebounding team. I can't stress this enough.

Free Throw Rate: Yes, Sam converted at the line, but he sucked at getting there. Joey was better, but the Hauser shots will likely go to Markus, Koby, Elliott, and Jayce, all of whom are as good or significantly better than Joey was at getting to the line. This number should also improve.

All in all, while our 3PFG% could decline, or eFG% will likely remain about the same while we get better at the remaining four factors.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

For a more detailed explanation, I posted this on Cracked Sidewalks today about why Marquette will project better without the Hausers in 2019-20 than with them in 2018-19.

I will note, while I do think this team will be better, they would've been even better with the Hausers. Well, specifically with Sam. Joey was a net neutral at best player, but Sam is a big loss that would positively impact our eFG%, turnover rate, and defensive rebounding.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/10/about-that-pomeroy-ranking.html?m=1

[IrwinFletcher]

https://twitter.com/goodmanhoops/status/1186280411065999360?s=21

I believe the AP poll is coming out today. Here is Goodman’s.

5 BE Teams in his poll.

[AlexJesswein]

NBCSports: https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/10/21/big-east-season-preview-power-rankings-preseason-awards-and-the-year-of-the-gunner/

[IrwinFletcher]

It is a bit rare to see Vegas put out O/U on win totals for college basketball, but here is what Circa Sports has for the season:

Marquette - 18 1/2
SHU - 20 1/2
Nova - 22 1/2
X - 22

Iowa St - 16 1/2
Mich St - 25
UW - 18 1/2
Purdue - 20 1/2
Duke - 23 1/2
Virginia - 23

(For entertainment purposes only, Naturally)

[IrwinFletcher]

Here is a composite of the main computer models

https://www.mratings.com/cb/compare.htm