The X Factor

[Phantom Warrior]

For me, the biggest "unknown" at this point in time is T. J. Taylor (that is, assuming Mayo ends up playing this year).

Including Mayo, we have eight players returning from last year's team, and we have a pretty fair idea of what each one brings to the table in terms of strengths and weaknesses. In short, I expect each of the eight to be at least moderately better than last season. Maybe one or more will show more than "moderate" improvement, which, of course, would be nice, but I'd gladly settle for each one being even slightly better.

Among the newcomers, we also have a pretty good handle on what kind of player Lockett is as he's already proven himself against high-major competition. Plus, we have seen the talent and potential of Steve Taylor. Maybe ST will play five minutes a game, maybe 15; it's way too early to predict. Still, I don't think anyone envisions his being in the starting line up; nor can I envision his playing a role similar to the one played by Erik Williams, Jamail Jones, or Juan Anderson when they were frosh.

I have to admit, I anticipate Ferguson fitting into a similar role to those three his first year - getting into a few games, but not many, and getting limited minutes even in those games. I just don't see his being part of an eight-man or nine-man rotation; nor do I anticipate his being that "half" Buzz sometimes refers to in his "nine and a half" player rotation.

That leaves T. J. T. Not only has no one been able to watch him in IWB's pro-am so far, but no one has seen video of his games last year. All we have are a few highlight clips.

Is T.J.T. this year's version of last year's Mayo? I don't think anyone (other than Puju) expected TM to average 21 mpg, sixth highest mpg on the team. Yet he did. Some games he got more playing time than Vander.

At 6'4"/6'5", T.J.T. could be tall enough (and he certainly appears to be strong enough) to play both wings. Could he become the first player off the bench at both wings?

On top of that, could he fill the role of top back-up at point? He has described himself at times as a point guard, and at least one recruiting site viewed him as a point guard coming out of high school. If so, he could get an additional 8-10 mpg there.

The bottom line, I guess, is that I can imagine T.J.T. getting solid, productive minutes as a member of an eight-man rotation. But I think it's also possible that he could end up being the 10th man in terms of mpg. For me, anyway, I think he is the wild card in this year's season.

I'm really hoping he ends up playing in the pro-am at some point, so we can at least get some glimpses of his game. But even if we do, I think he'll remain that X factor, possibly up until the start of conference play.

I'm hoping he's good enough to really push Vander and Todd for minutes, and I also hope he can push Derrick for the back-up slot at point. But I have no idea if either of those is even a remote possibility this year, again assuming TM regains his slot on the team.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Call me the skeptic, but I could see Steve getting EW/Mellow/Juan minutes. I expect Vander, Junior, Jamil, and Lockett to all start and average 25-30 mpg. Add in 40 for CO/DG and that's 140 of the 200 minutes accounted for. Of the remaining 60, Mayo will likely get 20-25. So that leaves around 35-40 minutes for Derrick Wilson, Juan Anderson, TJ Taylor, Steve, and Ferguson. Who knows how it shakes out, but he'll almost certainly have to fight for every minute he gets.

[warriorfan4life]

Call me the skeptic, but I could see Steve getting EW/Mellow/Juan minutes. I expect Vander, Junior, Jamil, and Lockett to all start and average 25-30 mpg. Add in 40 for CO/DG and that's 140 of the 200 minutes accounted for. Of the remaining 60, Mayo will likely get 20-25. So that leaves around 35-40 minutes for Derrick Wilson, Juan Anderson, TJ Taylor, Steve, and Ferguson. Who knows how it shakes out, but he'll almost certainly have to fight for every minute he gets.

Steve Taylor is much more mature and college ready then Jones and Juan were. He is going to force his way out on the court for 15-20 minutes. I'd guess that TJ Taylor also plays 10-15 minutes a night (got a hunch that Blue handles a lot of back-up PG duties), and Jamal and Juan are fighting uphill battles for PT.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Not saying it couldn't happen, just that I'll believe it when I see it. So far, Vander and Mayo are the only freshmen to log double-digit minutes under Buzz, and there's a lot more competition for minutes this year than there was for either of them. The only ways I see ST getting those minutes is either due to injuries (hope not) or because he's very, very good (hope so). But based on history, Buzz doesn't often give true freshmen 15+ minutes. That's all I'm saying.

[warriorfan4life]

Not saying it couldn't happen, just that I'll believe it when I see it. So far, Vander and Mayo are the only freshmen to log double-digit minutes under Buzz, and there's a lot more competition for minutes this year than there was for either of them. The only ways I see ST getting those minutes is either due to injuries (hope not) or because he's very, very good (hope so). But based on history, Buzz doesn't often give true freshmen 15+ minutes. That's all I'm saying.

Do not forget about Gardner, who played a good amount as a frosh when healthy. And I think Taylor is the best four year player Buzz has signed so far (much ahead of Blue at comparable stages). He will not have to play to big minutes early because of the frontline talent already on the team, but even going back 2-3 years he would be playing starter's minutes off the bat. And I think we are really stretching the truth listing him at 6-7, 200, as he looks and plays much bigger then that.

[JohnnyRev]

One - isn't TJ coming in as a Juco Sophomore, not a freshman? Two - at Open Gym tonight, he looked very good. He is fast and can do everything - shoot long, medium, and drive - pass and hit the open man - defend aggressively - he just plays very smart and fast. No way is he coming in as a frosh.

[Phantom Warrior]

Yes, he's an incoming sophomore, but no one said he's a freshman. In the original post I said "among the newcomers," and all other replies seem to refer to Steve Taylor, not T. J.

Nice to read your observations of T.J.T. in the open gym setting. I hope he gets cleared soon, so he can play in the pro-am, and we can all have a chance to watch him.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Do not forget about Gardner, who played a good amount as a frosh when healthy. And I think Taylor is the best four year player Buzz has signed so far (much ahead of Blue at comparable stages). He will not have to play to big minutes early because of the frontline talent already on the team, but even going back 2-3 years he would be playing starter's minutes off the bat. And I think we are really stretching the truth listing him at 6-7, 200, as he looks and plays much bigger then that.

Gardner, for all his upside, only played 9.0 mpg that season, and that team wasn't nearly as deep and talented as this year's team is. Not saying that Taylor couldn't get Buzz to change his ways, but Gardner didn't get close to averaging 15 mpg. He only played 15+ mpg in 7 of 33 contests he played in, and never once played 20 mpg.

All fanbases have a tendency to oversell the new guy. Maybe Steve turns out to be a stud from day one, but most likely, he'll have to develop his way into his role. If Mayo is indeed back, I feel that about 160 minutes are spoken for between the starting five, Gardner, and Mayo. Of the remaining 40 minutes, I expect they will be pretty evenly divided between the 1-4 positions. DW will get the bulk of those minutes at the 1, and I expect TJ will get the majority at the 2. That leaves about 20 minutes for TJT, Juan, Ferguson, and Steve Taylor at the 3-4 positions. I have no doubt he'll play some of them, but he gets 15 mpg, that leaves only 5 mpg for Juan, Ferguson, and a guy in Jake Thomas that many feel will contribute more than the average walk-on.

On a team this deep, a true freshman getting 15-20 mpg is a ton. Not impossible, but barring injuries, well, I'll believe it when I see it. I think him getting minutes similar to Gardner's 9.0 as a freshman are far more realistic.

[warriorfan4life]

Gardner, for all his upside, only played 9.0 mpg that season, and that team wasn't nearly as deep and talented as this year's team is. Not saying that Taylor couldn't get Buzz to change his ways, but Gardner didn't get close to averaging 15 mpg. He only played 15+ mpg in 7 of 33 contests he played in, and never once played 20 mpg.

All fanbases have a tendency to oversell the new guy. Maybe Steve turns out to be a stud from day one, but most likely, he'll have to develop his way into his role. If Mayo is indeed back, I feel that about 160 minutes are spoken for between the starting five, Gardner, and Mayo. Of the remaining 40 minutes, I expect they will be pretty evenly divided between the 1-4 positions. DW will get the bulk of those minutes at the 1, and I expect TJ will get the majority at the 2. That leaves about 20 minutes for TJT, Juan, Ferguson, and Steve Taylor at the 3-4 positions. I have no doubt he'll play some of them, but he gets 15 mpg, that leaves only 5 mpg for Juan, Ferguson, and a guy in Jake Thomas that many feel will contribute more than the average walk-on.

On a team this deep, a true freshman getting 15-20 mpg is a ton. Not impossible, but barring injuries, well, I'll believe it when I see it. I think him getting minutes similar to Gardner's 9.0 as a freshman are far more realistic.

Sort of planning without Mayo, but even with him it is not unlikely for Taylor to get 15-20 minutes a night. Buzz plays 8-9 guys and that is about it. I think Taylor will be the second frontcourt sub (ahead of Juan and Ferguson) and earn his minutes there. Now, it may be a little tougher for T.J. Taylor to also get 15 minutes a night, but part of that hope is that him or Blue will handle back-up PG duties (like their size and offensive abilities better then Derrick Wilson).

[Goose85]

If Taylor can play defense at a Big East level, then he will get a decent amount of playing time (I think Otule comes back slowly). If he does not play defense his time will be limited.

Last year Buzz did a lot of situational substitutions throughout the game, not just late in the game. If Buzz again employs this strategy, that is a way that Steve Taylor (and Juan too) can begin to earn their minutes.

A lot of depth - it will be very interesting to see how all the playing time shakes out as I also think Jake Thomas will need to see the floor with his shooting ability.

[MUMac]

Gardner, for all his upside, only played 9.0 mpg that season, and that team wasn't nearly as deep and talented as this year's team is. Not saying that Taylor couldn't get Buzz to change his ways, but Gardner didn't get close to averaging 15 mpg. He only played 15+ mpg in 7 of 33 contests he played in, and never once played 20 mpg.

Gardner had conditioning issues his freshman campaign, especially early on. Towards the end of the season, he was getting double digits. I don't think he is a good comparison.

Maymon was averaging 16 minutes a game when he left.

If Taylor has the talent, Buzz will play him. He has a BE ready body. I don't see it as chaning his ways for Buzz, either. Buzz hasn't had a player of Taylor's combined size, talent and ability (outside of Maymon). If he plays D and rebounds, as I have seen of him, he will play. Gardner was limited in these areas (in addition to his conditioning).

[Nukem2]

Gardner's frosh stats were also affected negatively by his shoulder injury. Took a while to overcome that after sitting out a number go games.

[MUMac]

Gardner's frosh stats were also affected negatively by his shoulder injury. Took a while to overcome that after sitting out a number go games.

Good point. I had forgotten that injury.

[TheSultan]

Gardner had conditioning issues his freshman campaign, especially early on. Towards the end of the season, he was getting double digits. I don't think he is a good comparison.

Maymon was averaging 16 minutes a game when he left.

If Taylor has the talent, Buzz will play him. He has a BE ready body. I don't see it as chaning his ways for Buzz, either. Buzz hasn't had a player of Taylor's combined size, talent and ability (outside of Maymon). If he plays D and rebounds, as I have seen of him, he will play. Gardner was limited in these areas (in addition to his conditioning).


Maymon was a completely different scenario. They had a complete lack of bodies when he was a freshman, so he basically had to play for defensive purposes. That being said, I fully think Taylor will be given the chance to be in the front line rotation. I could foresee him getting 10 mpg or so...based on what I saw from Juan Anderson, I think he would likely be ahead of him.

[IWB]

Maymon was also a bit out of shape and did not fully understand the required work ethic, whereas Taylor is already on board with the work ethic and in great shape.

[MUBasketball]

OK this might be a completely ridiculous/stupid thought on my part, but here goes anyway. I had high hopes for TJ Taylor this year. I honestly think he's far too concerned with his girlfriend back in Texas. Anybody who follows him on Twitter knows what I mean. My goodness, I'm seriously concerned about him. Other guys are most concerned with getting in the gym and lifting or getting up shots. They have fun with the ladies on the side, but the main focus is hoops. With Taylor, it seems like his thoughts are everywhere but basketball. Call me crazy (I'm sure plenty will), but if your mind isn't right, your play won't be right either.

It's a strong accusation to make based on following a kid I've never met on Twitter (I get it...understandable). I think it's a valid concern though.

[IWB]

It is always tough on guys moving away from home. However, he has been here for one week, students aren't at MU, it is the guys on the team and that's about it. Once August rolls around, the campus comes to life and the whole MU world will change, there will be a lot more to do, a lot more to take his mind off of being away from home.